Macau's Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau reported April gross gaming revenue (GGR) of 19.89 billion patacas, roughly $2.6 billion, representing a 5.5% increase from April of the previous year, when GGR was 18.86 billion patacas. The April outcome, however, was below the 9% consensus forecast compiled by ConsensusMetrix.
On a month-to-month basis, April GGR decreased by 12% from March. Compared with the pre-pandemic benchmark of 2019, April revenues remain 15.7% under that level.
Following the latest data, Stifel reduced its 2026 Macau gaming revenue growth forecast to a range of 5% to 9%, a downward revision from its prior expectations. At the midpoint of that range, Stifel's projection implies aggregate revenues are approximately 9% below 2019 figures. The revised Stifel range aligns more closely with the current ConsensusMetrix consensus, which sits at 7.4%.
Stifel's commentary highlights a divergence between visitation trends and spending patterns. Visitor counts have exceeded 2019 levels, but mass gaming spend per visitor is tracking well below historical norms. The VIP and premium mass segments have made a return to the market, while the base mass business still lags behind established levels.
Operators in Macau have been ramping up marketing and promotional efforts to draw VIP and premium mass gamblers. Despite these measures, VIP volumes are currently around 30% of their 2019 level.
April is typically a month that records a sequential decline, falling between the Chinese New Year holiday season and the May Day holiday. Stifel expects the forthcoming May Day holiday to boost visitation to Macau.
Looking ahead, Stifel projects that May GGR will increase by 6% to 10% year-over-year, which would place May roughly 12% below May 2019 levels. The firm also anticipates that total revenues for the second quarter of 2026 will be up 4% to 8% compared with the same quarter a year earlier.
Market pricing for Macau-focused equities continues to reflect discounts relative to long-term historical valuation metrics.
Bottom line - April showed year-on-year growth but failed to meet consensus expectations, prompting Stifel to trim its 2026 growth outlook. Strong visitation has not yet translated into full recovery of mass spending, while VIP activity remains materially below pre-pandemic volumes.