Expected volatility
Options-market pricing compiled by Bloomberg suggests Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) could see its share price move by about 5.8% when the company releases results on May 20 after the market close. That options-implied figure represents the market's expectation of the stock's one-day directional swing around the earnings announcement.
How past reports compare
Reviewing Nvidia's recent earnings outcomes against the options-implied moves shows a mixed pattern over eight reporting periods. The stock has produced larger-than-implied moves in three of those eight quarters, while in the remaining five events the actual price change either fell short of the implied move or stayed within it.
- On May 22, 2024, shares rose 13.6% versus an implied move of 8.7%.
- On Feb. 26, 2025, the stock fell 13.8% compared with an 8.0% implied move.
- On Nov. 19, 2025, Nvidia dropped 6.5% against a 6.4% implied move.
- On Feb. 25 (most recent earnings release), Nvidia shares showed no change despite a 5.7% implied move.
- On Aug. 27, 2025, the stock rose 2.6% versus a 6.2% implied move.
- On May 28, 2025, shares gained 3.6% compared to a 7.4% implied move.
- On Aug. 28, 2024, the stock fell 7.6%, below the 10.1% implied move.
- On Nov. 20, 2024, the stock declined 1.1% under the 8.5% implied move.
Implications for traders and markets
Options-implied moves are one metric market participants use to set expectations around earnings announcements. The sequence of outcomes listed above illustrates that actual post-earnings movement can substantially exceed, closely match, or come in below those implied ranges. Investors and traders looking at Nvidia ahead of the May 20 report may weigh the 5.8% implied move as a reference point, while acknowledging the historical variability shown across the past eight reporting dates.
Bottom line
Bloomberg's options-derived number points to a 5.8% potential price swing for Nvidia after the May 20 earnings release. History shows the stock's reaction to earnings has varied, producing outsized moves in several quarters and smaller changes in others.