OPEC+ delegates are set to approve a small upward adjustment to their production quotas at a scheduled meeting on Sunday, with the group likely to agree on an increase in the neighborhood of 188,000 barrels per day.
The planned rise closely resembles the previous month’s 206,000 bpd uplift, modified to reflect the departure of the United Arab Emirates - which is due to leave the grouping on May 1. Observers characterise the expected decision as signalling a business-as-usual approach by the producers.
That posture comes against a backdrop of significant export disruption. The recent conflict involving the U.S. and Israel with Iran, which began on February 28, and the ensuing closure of the Strait of Hormuz have sharply limited outbound shipments from a subset of OPEC+ members. The countries directly cited as affected by these export constraints are Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE. These four were previously among the few in the group positioned to boost output.
Sunday’s gathering will convene seven member states: Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Oman. After the UAE’s exit, the broader OPEC+ alliance will still count 21 members, including Iran. In practice over recent years, only seven countries plus the UAE have been routinely involved in the monthly decisions on production levels.
The expected quota increase of about 188,000 bpd therefore represents a measured adjustment rather than a large reallocation of crude into global markets. The combination of constrained exports from several key producers and the reduced active participation in monthly decision-making frames the context for both the modest scale of the increase and the continued focus on maintaining established routines within the group.
Market participants and observers will be watching how the formal vote and any accompanying statements from the participating members address the mismatch between official quotas and the practical limits on exports caused by the conflict and the Strait of Hormuz closure.
Quick facts
- Planned quota increase: approximately 188,000 barrels per day.
- Previous month’s increase: 206,000 bpd (adjusted for UAE departure).
- Meeting participants this Sunday: Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Oman.