Stock Markets May 1, 2026 06:36 AM

Moderna Outperforms Q1 Revenue Expectations on Strong International COVID Vaccine Demand

Robust sales outside the U.S. and strategic partnerships offset domestic headwinds as company maintains 2026 growth target

By Sofia Navarro MRNA
Moderna Outperforms Q1 Revenue Expectations on Strong International COVID Vaccine Demand
MRNA

Moderna reported first-quarter revenue that exceeded Wall Street expectations, driven by outsized international sales of its COVID-19 vaccine and support from distribution partnerships in the UK, Canada and Australia. The company recorded $389 million in revenue, with $311 million coming from international markets versus $78 million in the U.S., and confirmed its 2026 revenue growth outlook of up to 10%. A net loss per share of $3.40 included significant patent settlement charges.

Key Points

  • Moderna reported Q1 revenue of $389 million, beating analysts' average estimate of nearly $228 million, with a year-over-year increase of $281 million.
  • International COVID-19 vaccine sales totaled $311 million versus $78 million in the U.S., aided by partnerships in the UK, Canada and Australia - shifting the company toward a more balanced international revenue profile.
  • The company reaffirmed its February forecast for up to 10% revenue growth in 2026, and expects roughly half of revenue to originate from the U.S. by that year, down from 62% last year.

Moderna posted first-quarter revenue that topped analysts' projections, propelled primarily by stronger-than-expected international demand for its COVID-19 vaccine. The Cambridge, Massachusetts-based company reported $389 million in revenue for the quarter, an increase of $281 million from the same period a year earlier, and above the analysts' average estimate of nearly $228 million compiled by LSEG.

International sales accounted for the vast majority of vaccine revenue in the quarter, coming in at $311 million compared with $78 million in the U.S. Moderna attributed the disparity in part to distribution arrangements it has cultivated with partners in the UK, Canada and Australia, which helped accelerate overseas uptake.

"So our story has really become a more balanced international versus U.S. story," Moderna Chief Financial Officer Jamey Mock said in an interview. Mock pointed to the company's expanded global footprint as a key contributor to the quarter's top-line strength.

Domestically, sweeping changes to U.S. vaccination policy under Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. - a longtime anti-vaccine activist - have led to reduced vaccine use and altered the regulatory environment for companies developing new shots. Mock said the company hopes many of the most disruptive effects are now behind it, and that Moderna is looking for a more stable COVID market in the U.S. in 2026.

Beyond the COVID-19 franchise, Moderna is progressing programs intended to broaden its revenue base as pandemic-era demand eases. The company has secured an August 5 decision date from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for its mRNA-based influenza vaccine after resolving a prior dispute with the regulator; the FDA had initially rejected the application citing flaws in trial design.

Moderna also identified several late-stage development milestones that could shape its future growth profile, including timelines for a norovirus vaccine, an individualized cancer vaccine called intismeran that it is developing with partner Merck, and a therapeutic candidate for propionic acidemia, a rare metabolic disorder.

Reiterating guidance released in February, Moderna kept its 2026 revenue growth outlook at up to 10 percent year-over-year. Management expects roughly half of the company's revenue to come from the U.S. by 2026, down from 62 percent last year, reflecting the shift toward a more internationally balanced revenue mix.

On profitability, Moderna reported a quarterly net loss per share of $3.40. That figure included $2.22 per share of charges tied to the settlement of a patent dispute with Roivant Sciences' unit Genevant and Arbutus Biopharma over the lipid nanoparticle technology used in its COVID vaccine. By comparison, the company recorded a loss of $2.52 per share in the year-ago quarter. Analysts had been modeling a steeper loss, with the consensus at a loss of $3.96 per share.

As investors digest the combination of a revenue beat, a sizable international contribution to sales, ongoing development programs across infectious disease and other therapeutic areas, and discrete legal-related charges to earnings, Moderna is positioning itself to navigate a post-pandemic market while pursuing diversification of its product pipeline.

Risks

  • Changes to U.S. vaccination policy under Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., described in the report as having reduced vaccine use and reshaped the regulatory landscape, pose continued uncertainty for U.S. vaccine demand and the broader biotech and healthcare sectors.
  • Charges tied to intellectual property disputes affected quarterly results - specifically a $2.22 per share charge related to a settlement over lipid nanoparticle technology - introducing legal and financial risk to Moderna's earnings and the biotech sector.
  • The company's expansion into new therapeutic areas and pending regulatory decisions, such as the August 5 FDA action date for its mRNA flu vaccine, carry development and regulatory risks that could influence future revenue realization across pharmaceuticals and biotech markets.

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