Jefferies has moved Deutsche Post DHL Group (ETR:DHLn) from a "buy" rating to "hold" and cut its price target to €52 from €60, citing a "cloudy macro" backdrop that constrains near-term upside. The broker explicitly stated it sees more immediate upside in Kuehne+Nagel than in DHL.
Despite the downgrade, Jefferies did not materially alter its medium-term financial forecasts. The broker left its 2026-2028 revenue and group EBIT estimates broadly unchanged, projecting revenue of €85.3 billion in 2026 and €92.2 billion in 2028. Group EBIT is seen at €6.4 billion in 2026, rising to €6.8 billion in 2027 and €7.2 billion in 2028, which implies margins of 7.5% in 2026, 7.7% in 2027 and 7.8% in 2028.
Jefferies reiterated expectations for more than €1 billion of cost savings from the company’s efficiency programme, noting that about €0.6 billion was achieved in the programme’s first year. The broker estimated that the full cost savings would represent roughly 15% of EBIT once delivered.
The broker also flagged a currency effect in early 2026 results, saying that first-quarter 2026 costs appeared to be "flattered by the lower USD," given that aviation expenses are dollar-denominated. This observation underlines how exchange-rate moves can temporarily influence reported costs where expenses and revenues are denominated in different currencies.
Jefferies provided earnings per share estimates of €3.36 for 2026, €3.63 for 2027 and €3.89 for 2028. Its valuation metrics for 2026 are a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.8 times and an EV/EBIT multiple of 14.7 times. The broker sees the dividend yield at 4.3% in 2026, increasing to 4.8% by 2028.
Free cash flow is forecast at €3.46 billion in 2026 and €3.98 billion in 2028, equating to yields of 6.8% and 7.8% respectively. Jefferies expects net debt to EBITDA of about 2.0 times in 2026, improving to 1.8 times by 2028.
For its sum-of-the-parts valuation, Jefferies applied discrete EV/EBIT multiples to the group's divisions: 11 times for DHL Express, 10 times for Post and Parcel and e-commerce, 18 times for Forwarding, and 17 times for Supply Chain. These division-level multiples underpin the broker’s revised target.
Context and implications
The downgrade reflects Jefferies’ more cautious stance given an uncertain macroeconomic environment, while its financial model retains steady progression in revenue, margins and cash generation through 2028. Currency movements and the pace of cost-savings delivery are highlighted as nearer-term influences on reported costs and profitability.
The broker’s preference for Kuehne+Nagel in the near term signals that Jefferies views competitive dynamics and relative earnings momentum across the logistics sector as important in identifying nearer-term winners.