ConocoPhillips said on Thursday it has revised down its 2026 production outlook and excluded near-term volumes from Qatar after damage to regional energy infrastructure stemming from the Iran conflict disrupted operations.
The Houston-based oil and gas producer is a partner in QatarEnergy's liquefied natural gas export plant, one of the world’s largest LNG facilities. Iranian attacks on that facility have removed roughly one-sixth of Qatar’s LNG export capacity - a loss the company noted is valued at about $20 billion a year - and repairs are expected to take three to five years.
ConocoPhillips reported that its investments in Qatar amounted to approximately $1.8 billion as of March 31, and that output from those investments represented 4% of the company’s total production in 2025. As a result of excluding Qatar volumes, the company said its annual outlook reflects a reduction of about 20,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day.
In addition to the Qatar-related adjustment, the company is taking a roughly 15,000 boed hit tied to higher royalty rates at its Surmont oil sands project in Canada. Combined, these items form part of the rationale for the lowered 2026 forecast.
ConocoPhillips now expects 2026 production to fall between 2.29 million barrels of oil equivalent per day and 2.325 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, down from its prior guidance range of 2.33 mmboepd to 2.36 mmboepd. For the current quarter, it anticipates production of 2.185 mmboepd to 2.215 mmboepd.
The company also outlined capital spending expectations, saying it now projects annual capital expenditures to be between $12 billion and $12.5 billion. That capex range reflects incremental activity in the Permian basin and ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East.
Operational and market dynamics weighed on first-quarter performance. ConocoPhillips reported average realised prices fell 6% to $50.36 per barrel of oil equivalent, driven by weaker gas prices. Net income for the three months ended March 31 declined to $2.18 billion, or $1.78 per share, from $2.85 billion, or $2.23 per share, a year earlier.
Shares of the company fell 2.5% in pre-market trading following the announcement.
Contextual note - The company indicated that the exclusion of Qatar volumes and the higher royalties at Surmont are the primary drivers of the production reduction in its outlook. The longer-term timing of capacity repairs in Qatar was described as a three- to five-year timeframe by ConocoPhillips.