China’s manufacturing sector continued to register expansion in April, with the National Bureau of Statistics reporting an official Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) of 50.3, down marginally from 50.4 in March. The April reading exceeded market expectations, topping both the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 50.1 and Barclays’ projection of 50.2. A PMI reading above 50 signals expansion in manufacturing activity.
Export-related gauges contributed to the stronger-than-expected performance. The NBS PMI new export orders index rose to 50.3, reaching a two-year high in April. A separate private-sector measure with greater exposure to exporters - the RatingDog manufacturing PMI - advanced to a multi-year high of 52.2.
Trade data for the first quarter showed robust year-on-year gains across several high-tech product segments. Electric vehicle exports jumped by 78%, lithium battery shipments were up 50%, wind turbine exports climbed 45%, and semiconductor exports increased by 78%. Regional trade indicators from Korea and Vietnam, together with port cargo throughput figures, point to continued export strength into the second quarter.
Price dynamics eased in April after a sharp increase in March, with both input and output prices stabilizing. Nevertheless, the gap between output and input prices widened to a four-year high in April.
Outside manufacturing, the services sector and consumption indicators cooled in April. The services PMI remained in contraction territory, and measures of consumption, including auto sales, weakened during the month.
On outlooks, Barclays projects that net exports will supply roughly 30% of GDP growth this year, contributing about 1.4 percentage points to its full-year 2026 GDP growth forecast of 4.6%. The bank also expects the share of growth coming from consumption to fall below 50%, citing a deteriorating labor market and a reduction in pro-consumption subsidies as factors behind softer household demand.
Summary: Manufacturing activity stayed in expansion in April driven by stronger export orders and sustained high-tech trade, while services and consumption softened and price dynamics showed stabilization following March’s rise.