WASHINGTON, April 14 - U.S. producer prices increased less than analysts had anticipated in March, with the rise driven primarily by energy costs even as services prices remained unchanged. The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.5% in March, following a downwardly revised 0.5% gain in February.
The monthly increase fell short of consensus expectations. Economists polled by Reuters had projected the PPI would accelerate by 1.1% in March after a previously reported 0.7% gain in February.
Energy prices jumped sharply and were the main upward contributor to the PPI reading, while the cost of services showed no change in March. The data likely capture only the initial effects of the conflict in the Middle East on producer inflation.
On a 12-month basis, the PPI advanced 4.0% in the year through March, up from a 3.4% increase in February.
Further upward pressure on inflation is likely given recent moves in crude markets. Oil prices shot up on Monday to more than $100 a barrel after the U.S. military said it would blockade ships leaving Iran's ports. Since the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran started at the end of February, oil prices have jumped more than 35%.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics also reported last week that the Consumer Price Index recorded its largest monthly increase in nearly four years in March, driven in part by a record jump in the cost of gasoline and diesel.
Monetary policymakers monitor the Personal Consumption Expenditures price indexes when assessing progress toward the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target. Before the release of the PPI report, economists estimated that PCE inflation excluding food and energy rose 0.2% in March after two consecutive monthly increases of 0.4%.
That estimated monthly rise in core PCE would translate to a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, up from 3.0% in February. Economists expect the recent oil price shock to exert a moderate impact on so-called core inflation.
Data points reiterated:
- PPI for final demand: +0.5% in March, after a downwardly revised +0.5% in February.
- Economists' forecast for March PPI: +1.1% (consensus).
- PPI year-on-year: +4.0% in March, up from +3.4% in February.
- Oil prices: rose to more than $100 a barrel on Monday; up over 35% since the late-February outbreak of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.
- Core PCE estimate: +0.2% in March (month), implying +3.1% year-on-year, from +3.0% in February.