Summary
Russia’s largest bank, Sberbank, has cut its GDP growth forecast for 2026 to a range of 0.5% to 1%, down from its earlier 1% to 1.5% outlook. The revision follows a difficult first quarter in which the economy contracted in January and February, and comes ahead of preliminary official GDP and statistics releases.
Sberbank announced the downgrade on Wednesday, updating its projections prior to a preliminary first-quarter GDP estimate from the Economy Ministry and ahead of preliminary data from the statistics agency scheduled for release on May 15. The bank tied the revision directly to the weak start to the year and persistent tight monetary conditions.
Official figures show the Russian economy shrank by 1.8% in both January and February. Sberbank attributed those contractions to a combination of high interest rates, higher taxes, a strong rouble and subdued prices for Russian oil prior to the onset of the Iran war.
"The situation in the first quarter of the Russian economy was challenging against the backdrop of tight monetary conditions," said Sberbank’s Deputy CEO Taras Skvortsov.
Sberbank highlighted that the mining and manufacturing sectors suffered the deepest setbacks in the period. Consumer spending slowed noticeably, weighing on retail trade, and the construction sector showed signs of stagnation in the first quarter.
On inflation, Sberbank now expects consumer price growth in 2026 to fall between 6% and 6.5%. That forecast is higher than the central bank’s projection of 4.5% to 5.5% for the same year.
What the update means
The bank’s lowered GDP forecast reflects the concrete early-year contractions and the mix of monetary and fiscal factors Sberbank cited. The higher inflation outlook also signals a gap between the bank’s view and the central bank’s projection.
Further clarity on the depth and drivers of the first-quarter slowdown is expected when the Economy Ministry’s preliminary GDP estimate is released and when the statistics agency publishes its preliminary data on May 15.