Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
4,093 total articles
European Central Bank policy is currently sound, ECB board member Isabel Schnabel said, but recent geopolitical tensions tied to Iran have raised the prospect of an energy-driven rise in consumer prices that warrants close monitoring. While staff projections show inflation aligning with the 2% target over the medium term and expectations remain anc…
The U.S. Army abruptly canceled a large-scale training event for the headquarters element of the 82nd Airborne Division at Fort Bragg, North Carolina. The move has generated speculation inside the Defense Department about a potential deployment to the Middle East as tensions with Iran increase. As of Friday, no deployment orders had been issued, an…
Canada's minister responsible for U.S. trade relations, Dominic LeBlanc, will travel to Washington to meet U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer to discuss the looming trilateral review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA/CUSMA) and bilateral tariff issues. The meeting comes as the review deadline of July 1 approaches and after t…
Morgan Stanley's client note estimates that a sustained oil price increase would hit Asian growth hardest due to heavy reliance on imported energy, modestly lift inflation region-wide, and produce more muted effects in the United States. The euro area is identified as facing a complex mix of slower growth and higher inflation.
A group of economists found that melding anonymized private data from payroll processor ADP, Vanguard 401(k) activity and JPMorgan checking accounts with government employment and inflation reports produces more accurate forecasts of monthly private nonfarm payrolls, subsequent revisions, and six-month job growth. The team says private signals - es…
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly said the weak February jobs report calls into question recent signs that the U.S. labor market was stabilizing. She cautioned against reading too much into a single month but highlighted details in the report that complicate interpretation, and reiterated that the Fed faces risks on both sid…
Electronic warfare tactics in the Persian Gulf have degraded navigation systems and contributed to a dramatic fall in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Missiles and drone strikes have produced multiple attacks and fatalities on oil tankers, while widespread GPS and AIS jamming has affected more than 1,100 vessels in recent days.
As the Middle East conflict extends into a second week, investors have shifted into a narrow set of highly-trafficked defensive positions. The dollar has rallied, gold and other previously crowded trades have taken losses while many measures of market plumbing and systemic stress remain subdued. Surging oil prices and rising inflation expectations …
Rising wholesale gas prices driven by disruptions to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and halted Qatari LNG output have left Britain more exposed to an energy-driven inflation surge than many of its European peers. A heavier reliance on gas for electricity and heating, limited storage, regulated quarterly household price caps and already elev…
National Economic Council member Kevin Hassett told CNBC he still expects the U.S. economy to grow 4% this year, even after February nonfarm payrolls fell by 92,000 when forecasts had pointed to an increase of 58,000. Hassett recommended assessing job-market trends using averaged data and cited a pickup in productivity. He also said there are no cu…
The U.S. dollar advanced against several major currencies after data showed the economy lost 92,000 jobs in February and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. The weaker-than-expected payrolls report prompted markets to move up the timeline for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts, with futures now pricing a restart of easing in September rather than O…
Oil prices jumped more than 27% in the week following the outbreak of conflict in Iran, prompting speculation that the European Central Bank may need to raise interest rates to counter energy-driven inflation. Senior ECB figures urged caution, saying decisions will be guided by evolving data and the persistence of the shock rather than a pre-set po…
San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report heightens her concern about the labor market but does not, by itself, justify an immediate cut in interest rates. Daly cited two-sided risks from still-elevated inflation and a recent runup in oil prices tied to the Iran conflict, and she advocated pausin…
U.S. nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 92,000 in February, far below consensus expectations for a 59,000 gain, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% versus an anticipated 4.3%. Stock futures weakened, Treasury yields moved erratically and the dollar remained flat. Economists warn the report raises fresh questions about the labor market and m…
President Donald Trump declared that no agreement with Iran will be acceptable unless it involves the country's unconditional surrender and a change in leadership. He said on Truth Social that, following surrender and the selection of new leaders, the U.S. and its allies will help rebuild Iran's economy. The comments come nearly a week after coordi…
U.S. nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 92,000 in February while the unemployment rate rose from 4.3% to 4.4%. The decline reflected a combination of a 31,000-worker strike at Kaiser Permanente, severe winter weather, and statistical adjustments following an updated birth-and-death model and delayed population controls. Economists say the jobles…
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said the recent rise in oil and gasoline prices following U.S. airstrikes against Iran is likely to be a short-lived shock for consumers and not a reason for the Fed to alter its policy stance, unless the increase becomes persistent and feeds into broader inflation.
European Union governments have warned of a potential worldwide shortfall in interceptor missiles after a private meeting in Brussels, citing concerns that ongoing conflict in the Middle East and existing commitments to Ukraine could further deplete global stocks. Production limitations in Asia and logistical bottlenecks in key components are const…
Bank of America analysts say the current conflict involving Iran is not expected to meaningfully disrupt U.S. economic activity in the near term, but they warn a sustained spike in oil prices could propagate through consumer spending, investment and monetary policy. The bank highlights specific channels that would amplify damage, and expects modest…
An expert cited in a Bank of America note says the current conflict involving Iran is likely to be short-lived because the tempo of operations is constrained by available weapons stockpiles. The situation could spur supplemental U.S. defense funding and shift regional power balances, but broader destabilization risks remain assessed as relatively l…
Indonesia’s finance minister, Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa, is pushing back against investor alarm over a string of downgrades and market volatility, arguing his pro-growth, unconventional policies remain prudent by international standards. He insists recent measures - including a large transfer of government liquidity to state-owned banks - are designed t…
U.S. equity funds saw their largest weekly net outflows in eight weeks in the seven days to March 4 as investors reduced risk exposure amid concerns over the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran and its potential effects on inflation and the Federal Reserve's interest-rate path. Simultaneously, money market and bond funds drew significant inflows, and s…
The largest government bond markets worldwide ended the week with significant losses amid concerns that conflict in the Middle East will revive upward pressure on inflation and prompt central banks to tighten policy sooner. Short-dated, two-year government bonds were hit hardest, with yields climbing sharply in the UK, euro area, the United States …
U.S. equity futures declined Friday as intensified fighting in the Middle East raised concerns about higher energy prices and supply disruptions, while traders awaited a weekly jobs report. The U.S.-Israel air campaign against Iran approached a week, contributing to a sharp weekly jump in oil and interruptions to shipping through the Strait of Horm…
United Arab Emirates authorities are weighing a decision to freeze billions of dollars of Iranian assets parked in the Gulf state. The measure, reported by the Wall Street Journal, would dramatically impede Iran's access to foreign currency and international trade networks as its economy contends with inflation and an ongoing military confrontation…
