Major central banks paused on interest rate moves this week but conveyed a clear willingness to act if energy-price shocks stemming from the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran push inflation higher. While policymaking bodies from Australia to Switzerland held policy steady, several signalled that an uptick in inflationary pressures could prompt rate hikes at forthcoming meetings.
Below is a country-by-country snapshot of where the ten developed market central banks stand today, ordered from the highest policy rate to the lowest, and reflecting each institution's most recent decisions and guidance.
1/ Australia
The Reserve Bank of Australia has delivered two rate increases so far this year, bringing its policy rate to 4.1% - the highest among G10 central banks. Market pricing implies roughly an 80% probability of another move next week, and traders expect at least two more hikes before the end of the year. Inflation data released on Wednesday showed headline consumer prices rose 4.1% in the first quarter compared with a year earlier, well above the RBA's 2-3% target range; the core gauge registered 3.5%.
2/ Norway
Norges Bank, which kept its policy rate on hold at 4% in March, is due to meet next week. The bank has said it may raise rates once or twice this year to address a rebound in inflationary pressures driven by robust wage growth and higher energy costs. Core inflation in Norway was around 3.0% in March and has exceeded the 2% target each month since early 2022.
3/ Britain
The Bank of England left its official rate unchanged at 3.75% on Thursday, with one member voting for a hike. In a notable procedural change, the BoE dropped its practice of issuing a single central forecast for inflation and other key indicators and instead released three scenarios. The most extreme of those scenarios could require a "forceful" tightening of monetary policy.
4/ United States
The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady in an 8-4 vote, the closest split among policymakers in decades. Three officials objected to the inclusion of an "easing bias" in the policy statement, while one member voted for a rate cut. The Fed retained the easing-bias phrasing but Chair Jerome Powell said the committee could conceivably change that language as soon as June. Market traders anticipate the Fed will forgo rate cuts in 2026 and may even raise rates in the first half of 2027.
5/ New Zealand
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept its cash rate at 2.25% earlier in April. The central bank governor noted that measures of core inflation remained within the 1-3% target band in the first quarter, but emphasised readiness to act if conditions deteriorate. Market prices imply three additional hikes by year-end.
6/ Canada
The Bank of Canada maintained its policy rate at 2.25% on Wednesday. The bank said higher oil prices would be positive for Canada by boosting export revenues, while also modestly squeezing households and businesses. The BoC assumed oil would decline to $75 a barrel by mid-2027 and judged its current policy rate broadly appropriate under that scenario, but warned it would respond quickly if inflation persisted. Canadian inflation rose to 2.4% in March, inside the BoC's target band.
7/ Euro zone
The European Central Bank also chose to keep rates unchanged at 2% on Thursday but signalled growing concern about rising inflation pressures. That posture has increased market expectations for several rate hikes this year, with traders assigning a meaningful chance to an initial increase as soon as June. President Christine Lagarde said the decision to hold was unanimous, and that policymakers had discussed a possible rate rise "at length."
8/ Sweden
The Riksbank is scheduled to meet next week and most economists expect it will keep its key rate at 1.75%. Swedish officials have warned about the inflationary risks associated with the conflict and stated they stand ready to act if necessary.
9/ Japan
The Bank of Japan held its policy rate at 0.75% on Tuesday but issued unusually direct signals that it may raise rates in the near term, noting the need for extra vigilance to keep inflation in check. There were three dissenting votes proposing a hike. Since 2022 the BOJ has moved cautiously away from negative rates, but policy remains lower than in many other jurisdictions, contributing to a weaker yen - which could in turn add to inflation. The picture is complicated by Japanese government bond yields sitting at their highest levels in decades.
10/ Switzerland
The Swiss National Bank's policy rate remains at 0%, the lowest in the G10. The SNB is expected to hold rates steady at its June meeting and to rely on foreign exchange intervention to counter sharp appreciation of the Swiss franc, which has been supported by safe-haven flows. A stronger franc reduces import prices and therefore cushions the pass-through from higher energy costs to inflation, but it also risks pushing inflation below the SNB's 0-2% target range. Consumer prices in Switzerland rose by 0.3% last month compared with March 2025, the fastest annual increase in 12 months.
Analysis
Across the G10, central banks are balancing the risk that energy-driven inflation pressures could spill into broader price trends against the economic costs of higher borrowing rates. Some institutions - notably in Australia and Norway - have stronger immediate justification for further tightening given recent inflation readings; others are signalling conditional paths that would permit rapid response if energy shocks materialise. The Fed's close internal split and its retention of an easing-bias phrase underscore the uncertainty among U.S. officials about the timing of any pivot. Meanwhile, currency dynamics - from yen weakness to franc strength - are adding complexity to national inflation outlooks and influencing the policy choices available to each central bank.
Key points
- Central banks paused on rates but warned they could hike soon if energy-price spikes from the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran feed into broader inflation. (Impacted sectors: energy, consumer prices, monetary markets)
- Australia and Norway stand out for higher current rates and near-term prospects for further increases, while the SNB and BOJ remain at the low end of the policy spectrum. (Impacted sectors: financials, exporters, import-dependent industries)
- The Federal Reserve's split vote and lingering "easing bias" language highlight policy uncertainty in the United States, with market expectations shifting to later cuts and the possibility of hikes in 2027. (Impacted sectors: bond markets, banking, corporate borrowing)
Risks and uncertainties
- Energy prices could jump due to the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran and that rise could transmit to broader inflation, prompting faster-than-expected rate rises. (Affects: energy producers, households, inflation-sensitive sectors)
- Currency moves are complicating national inflation control - a weaker yen can intensify inflationary pressures in Japan, while a stronger franc risks pushing Swiss inflation below target. (Affects: exporters, importers, central bank FX policy)
- The Federal Reserve's internal disagreement over policy language and the possibility of altering its easing bias introduce uncertainty about the timing and direction of U.S. policy moves. (Affects: global rate expectations, capital flows, fixed-income markets)