U.S. stock index futures began the new trading week in a muted fashion after markets were closed on Friday for a public holiday. Investors entered the session closely monitoring progress from the first round of U.S.-Iran negotiations, which followed a tense opening and concluded with both sides agreeing on a roadmap toward a final deal within 60 days.
Oil prices reacted to the diplomatic development, sliding as much as 2% after the initial talks finished. The prospect of a resolution to hostilities in the Middle East has been a factor in recent market sentiment, and expectations that a peace deal could be reached helped propel the three major U.S. indexes to solid weekly gains by Thursday. The Nasdaq led the advance for the week with a 2.4% rise, as technology stocks continued to drive broader market strength.
Market voices and positioning
Michele Morganti, senior equity strategist at Generali Investments, described the post-announcement backdrop for equities as broadly constructive, noting that AI-related momentum has been lifting manufacturing names, the U.S. economy is holding up, and emerging market economies have shown greater resilience than in past crises.
Pre-market snapshot
At 04:53 a.m. ET, futures showed the Dow E-minis down 49 points, or 0.09%, S&P 500 E-minis down 12 points, or 0.16%, while Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 2.5 points, or 0.01%.
In premarket trading, memory chip stocks were among the stronger names. Micron Technology and Sandisk each rose by about 3.5%, and Intel climbed 4.1%. Market participants flagged Micron's quarterly results due on Wednesday as a near-term test for the rally in semiconductor shares; the memory chipmaker's shares have surged almost 300% so far this year.
Analysts and traders attribute much of Wall Street's recent rally to AI-driven optimism. That momentum, paired with signs of a resilient U.S. economy and hopes for an easing of the four-month-long conflict in the Middle East, has supported risk appetite across equity markets.
Macro and policy focus
Investors this week will keep a close eye on Thursday's personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation report, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of core inflation. A hotter-than-expected PCE print could bolster expectations for a more hawkish Fed response, after Fed chair Kevin Warsh's first meeting on Wednesday where he emphasized the need to rein in inflation.
Market-implied probabilities reflect expectations for tighter policy further out: according to LSEG data, markets currently price in a 25 basis point rate increase from the Fed in September. The two-year Treasury yield - a barometer of near-term rate expectations - reached 4.230%, its highest level since early 2025.
Comments from central bank officials will also be monitored, with scheduled speeches this week from New York Fed President John Williams and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee. Investors are watching those remarks closely after policymakers signaled the possibility of higher borrowing costs at last week's meeting.
Notable movers
Other individual stock moves included SpaceX shares slipping 3.7% to $178 following a second consecutive session of declines after a strong market debut. Apogee Therapeutics jumped 53% after reports said AbbVie was near a deal to acquire the inflammatory disease drug developer for about $10.9 billion.
Overall, markets entered the week with a mix of optimism around technology and AI, caution tied to geopolitics and policy risk, and a calendar that includes corporate earnings and key inflation data that could change the near-term trajectory of stocks and bonds.