Markets at a glance
By 06:41 ET (10:41 GMT) on Friday, futures linked to Canada’s commodity-heavy benchmark were higher. The S&P/TSX 60 index standard futures contract was up 9 points, or 0.4%, reflecting a positive start for Canadian benchmarks as traders weighed global developments and a major technology flotation.
The previous session had seen the S&P/TSX composite index climb to a one-week high, driven in part by strength in metals mining stocks and better-than-expected performance in consumer discretionary following results from Dollarama. That push left the TSX on course to post a weekly gain.
U.S. futures and broader sentiment
U.S. futures advanced alongside Canadian contracts. By 05:50 ET, Dow futures rose 422 points, or 0.8%; S&P 500 futures were higher by 47 points, or 0.6%; and Nasdaq 100 futures had gained 159 points, or 0.5%.
Markets were reacting to reports in Iranian state media describing the contours of a proposed memorandum of understanding between Tehran and Washington. The draft, as reported by Mehr news agency, would have Iran commit to reopening the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. pledge to lift oil sanctions. Mehr also reported that the MoU would address the release of frozen Iranian funds and that final talks would concentrate on nuclear and economic topics, while discussions of Iran’s missile program would be excluded. The report said the draft remained subject to finalization by relevant authorities.
Energy prices and geopolitical signals
Brent crude futures continued to slip on Friday, extending losses from the prior session when the contract fell below $90 a barrel. The downward pressure followed public comments by U.S. President Donald Trump suggesting that an agreement to end the war in Iran - now in its fourth month - may be near.
On Thursday, President Trump said a deal had been reached with Iran and that a final document might be signed soon, perhaps even over the weekend. He told reporters that the U.S. and Iran had reached a deal to unblock the Strait of Hormuz - a corridor responsible for about a fifth of global oil and gas flows that has been effectively closed for months - and to end an American naval blockade of Iran’s ports.
"We just made a great settlement of the war with Iran, and we’re going to be subject to finalization of documents, which should get done over the next few days. We’ll probably have a signing, maybe in Europe," Trump said. He later told supporters at a virtual rally "we ended the war with Iran today," and that the country had agreed "never to have a nuclear weapon."
Gold and currency movements
Gold prices edged higher on the day but remained positioned for a weekly decline. Market participants viewed the possibility of a U.S.-Iran settlement as a factor that could temper concerns about an energy-driven surge in inflation. While Brent remains well above pre-war levels, a retreat in oil prices could ease some pressures that might otherwise prompt central banks to raise interest rates further - a dynamic that tends to be unfavorable for non-yielding assets such as gold.
Expectations around monetary policy were also in play. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep borrowing costs unchanged at its meeting next week, yet markets priced in a likelihood of additional hikes before year-end. Early-2026 assumptions of the Fed beginning a rate-cut cycle have largely dissipated.
Gold found modest support from a softer U.S. dollar, which can improve bullion’s appeal for non-U.S. buyers. The dollar had been buoyed during the Iran conflict by safe-haven flows and views that the U.S. economy, as a major energy exporter, may be relatively shielded from an energy shock.
UBS analysts said in a note that they are revising forecasts to reflect a later start to Fed cuts, now moved to 2027, and a corresponding reduction in expected ETF gold demand in 2026. "The environment for the yellow metal will likely remain challenging in the near term, but we continue to see a constructive outlook over the medium term as Fed rate cuts moderate real rates and the U.S. dollar," their note said.
This week the European Central Bank became the first major central bank to lift rates, with officials emphasizing the need to rein in price pressures linked to the Iran war.
SpaceX IPO becomes the primary market story
Separately, investors were focused on the market debut of SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX). The rocket company confirmed pricing for its initial public offering at $135 per share and was set to begin trading on the Nasdaq on Friday. The offering is expected to raise $75 billion, making it the largest IPO in U.S. history.
SpaceX’s valuation was stated at $1.77 trillion based on 13.08 billion shares outstanding. That valuation could expand if underwriters exercise their option to sell additional shares. Given the size of the flotation, analysts noted that the IPO’s reception could test recent optimism in the technology sector, particularly ahead of two widely watched potential mega-listings from artificial intelligence-focused companies OpenAI and Anthropic. Those upcoming flotations, together with SpaceX’s debut, may inject a substantial amount of capital into the tech ecosystem and foster the emergence of large new industry players.
Elon Musk, who founded SpaceX in 2002 and holds roughly a 50% stake in the company, was flagged as a potential candidate to become the world’s first trillionaire if the IPO valuation holds.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll on Thursday found that SpaceX had achieved a very high profile among U.S. consumers even before going public, with about 84% of Americans reporting familiarity with the company. SpaceX’s public profile has been reinforced by notable reusable rocket launches and the global expansion of its Starlink satellite internet service.
The company’s footprint has widened beyond launch vehicles. In February, SpaceX completed a merger with xAI, the artificial intelligence company associated with Musk and known for the Grok chatbot, signaling a strategic move into nascent AI capabilities.
Market strategists at Vital Knowledge commented that SpaceX had eclipsed Iran as the dominant market topic that morning and that "shadow markets" were pointing to a sizable bounce when the stock opens for trading.
What to watch next
- Whether formal signings or confirmations related to the reported MoU between the U.S. and Iran occur and how those developments influence oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Movement in Brent crude and gold prices as traders reassess inflation and central bank policy paths in light of geopolitical developments.
- Market reaction to the SpaceX IPO when trading commences, and the degree to which it influences sentiment across the technology sector and appetite for large-cap tech offerings.
For investors and market participants, the interplay between geopolitical developments in the Middle East, central bank policy expectations, and one of the largest-ever equity offerings will likely dominate headlines and trading flows in the near term.