Taipei-based Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC) appears set to post another quarter of record results as strong AI infrastructure investment continues to underpin orders for its most advanced manufacturing and packaging capabilities.
According to an LSEG SmartEstimate compiled from 18 analysts, TSMC is expected to report second-quarter net profit of T$632.6 billion, the equivalent of about $19.65 billion, reflecting an estimated 59% jump. SmartEstimates give greater weight to forecasts from analysts with historically higher accuracy.
An earnings conference call is scheduled for 0600 GMT, when management will provide guidance for the third quarter and an updated full-year outlook. Analysts note that a quarterly net income above T$572.5 billion would mark the company’s highest-ever quarterly profit and would extend a run of profit growth to 10 consecutive quarters.
Market observers point to persistent demand for TSMC’s advanced process nodes - specifically its 3-nanometre and 2-nanometre technologies - as well as continued strength in orders for its advanced chip packaging platform, CoWoS. Those product lines have been cited as central to TSMC’s elevated revenue trajectory and pricing power as AI workloads expand.
TSMC has become a pivotal supplier for major technology customers, including Nvidia and Apple, and that customer mix has contributed to a significant increase in the company’s market valuation. The company’s market capitalisation is now about $1.97 trillion, which the article notes is nearly double that of South Korean rival Samsung Electronics.
On Monday, TSMC disclosed a 36% year-on-year rise in second-quarter revenue, a result that exceeded market forecasts and established a new record revenue level for the company. Dan Nystedt, a research analyst at TriOrient, said that the top-line strength underscores healthy AI-driven demand and the resulting pull for advanced production and CoWoS packaging.
Analysts broadly expect TSMC to raise its full-year revenue growth outlook above the company’s standing guidance of "above 30%" year-on-year. Haas Liu, Bank of America’s Asia semiconductor analyst, noted in a research note that supply-chain checks point to a robust AI demand pipeline and indicate scope for an upward revision to the full-year outlook.
Investors will also be watching capital expenditure guidance as a barometer of management’s confidence in the sustainability of AI-led demand. On its previous quarterly call in April, TSMC said that 2026 capital spending would be at the high end of an earlier $52 billion to $56 billion range. Some analysts expect the company to maintain that guidance, while Liu projects the company could raise 2026 capex to about $58 billion, citing tight equipment supply and aggressive capacity additions from memory makers such as Samsung Electronics, Micron Technology and SK Hynix.
Separately, TSMC is proceeding with a large-scale investment in the United States: the company is committing $165 billion to build chip factories in the U.S. state of Arizona. On the Taipei exchange, TSMC’s shares have risen 56% so far this year, slightly outpacing a broader market gain of 54%.
Currency conversion used in the reporting: $1 = 32.1880 Taiwan dollars.
Key upcoming events and metrics:
- TSMC expected Q2 net profit per LSEG SmartEstimate: T$632.6 billion (approx. $19.65 billion).
- Earnings call to provide Q3 and updated full-year guidance at 0600 GMT.
- Threshold for record quarterly net income: above T$572.5 billion.
Note on sources and estimates included in this report: The net profit projection and analyst expectations are based on an LSEG SmartEstimate aggregated from 18 analysts and referenced analyst commentary as described above.