Tesla is widely expected to report an increase in vehicle deliveries for the second quarter, with analysts projecting roughly a 5% year-over-year rise. Wall Street consensus compiled from 20 analysts polled by Visible Alpha places June-quarter deliveries at 402,780 vehicles, a 4.9% gain from the same period last year and a 12.5% rise compared with the prior quarter.
Market participants point to Europe as the primary source of growth in the quarter. Rising fuel prices - attributed in the reporting to the Iran war - have encouraged consumers across Europe to favor battery-powered vehicles, supporting demand for both new and used electric cars.
Deutsche Bank's regional breakdown anticipates the largest uptick to come from Europe, with growth approaching 40% versus the year-ago period. The bank expects China to post modest expansion of about 3% while forecasting a sizeable contraction in North America of roughly 21% from the prior year.
It is important to note Tesla does not publish delivery figures by region, so analysts must infer geographic trends from other data and market signals.
Industry observers also point to product and software developments that could help revive demand in Europe. Tesla has released lower-cost versions of its Model 3 and Model Y over the past year, and analysts say the rollout of the Full Self-Driving (FSD) advanced driver assistance system could provide additional appeal. To date the software has been authorized in only a handful of countries; an EU vote on a broader rollout is expected later this year.
The European recovery follows a challenging 2025 for Tesla sales in the region, when volumes plunged amid a consumer backlash tied to CEO Elon Musk's far-right political rhetoric. That pullback appears to be easing as macro drivers such as elevated fuel costs shift purchase decisions toward EVs.
Outside Europe, expectations are different. Demand in China is seen as stable for the quarter, while U.S. sales are under pressure ahead of the scheduled September expiration of the $7,500 Biden-era federal EV tax credit. That removal of a significant incentive is expected to weigh on North American deliveries.
Additional context for the delivery outlook will arrive as several European countries are set to publish monthly and quarterly automotive sales figures on Wednesday, which may provide clarity on the regional momentum analysts are projecting.
Analytical note: The street consensus and firm forecasts cited above come from Visible Alpha and Deutsche Bank polling and research. Because Tesla does not break out regional deliveries, analysts rely on a mix of vehicle registration data, dealer activity, pricing changes, and local sales reports to model geographic performance.