Strategy (MSTR) is due to announce its Q2 2026 financial results after the market close today. Analysts on average forecast $0.79 in earnings per share on revenue of $122.93 million. Yet market attention will almost certainly fix on the company’s Bitcoin holdings rather than the software business.
Strategy reported holding 843,775 Bitcoin with an average cost basis of $75,476. With Bitcoin trading near $64,000, that position sits materially underwater and is likely to generate another sizeable unrealized loss under fair-value accounting. The stock, which has fallen roughly 77% from its 52-week high, was trading at $97.01, up 3.94% on the day; investors are bracing for sharp volatility when GAAP earnings incorporate the mark-to-market swing.
The number that will dominate the headline
Under GAAP fair-value rules, changes in the market price of Bitcoin flow straight through net income, turning every move in BTC into a paper gain or loss. That dynamic made last quarter’s print the story: Strategy reported GAAP EPS of -$38.25 versus estimates of -$18.98, an earnings miss of -101.5% driven by Bitcoin mark-to-market accounting. With the company’s cost basis averaging $75,476 and BTC trading roughly $11K lower, another large unrealized loss is expected to shape tonight’s headline.
Five items to watch on the call
- Bitcoin unrealized P&L: Management will have to account for the gap between the ~$75,476 average cost and a BTC market price near $64K. That variance is central to the GAAP EPS print and represents an estimated paper loss near $9.6 billion on the company’s holdings.
- USD cash reserve: The company reported a cash reserve of $3.75 billion after recent share sales. Investors will listen for any changes to that reserve; the level is important to cover preferred dividend obligations and to signal balance sheet flexibility.
- Pause in Bitcoin purchases: Strategy has gone approximately four weeks without buying Bitcoin, the first prolonged halt of this kind. Management commentary on whether the purchase program will resume or remain suspended will be closely parsed.
- Recent Bitcoin sales: The company sold Bitcoin on July 6, the first such sale in about four years. The explanation for that sale and the prospect of additional disposals are likely to draw investor scrutiny.
- Preferred share restructuring: Distressed-debt investors are reportedly engaged in discussions, with Moelis & Co. mentioned in relation to a potential STRC swap. Any update on the Strategy Prf A (STRC) situation or on buybacks and remaining authorization could prompt market moves.
The preferred-stock wildcard
Beyond the Bitcoin mark-to-market impact, the balance sheet and preferred-dividend coverage may take center stage. Strategy raised $544.5 million through share sales executed between July 20 and July 26 to bolster its preferred dividend coverage; the company said the reserve equates to roughly 2.1 years of obligations. That said, distressed holders of the Prf A shares are in restructuring talks, and the presence of such negotiations is a cautionary signal. Investors will watch for references to STRC buybacks, any remaining authorization (noted at $975 million), or new at-the-market issuance plans.
New metrics management is pushing
Management recently introduced alternative KPIs intended to reframe the narrative away from GAAP volatility. Those measures include Net Reserve ($36.6 billion), Net BTC Per Share, and BTC Hurdle/Floor ARR. Expect the presentation and Q&A to emphasize these metrics as the company defends an NAV-based valuation approach against the GAAP loss story.
Analyst coverage shows a wide range of views
Price targets cited in coverage span a broad range, underscoring the divergence among analysts: targets of $570, $212, $213 and $130 have been published alongside corresponding analyst ratings. With Strategy trading near $97, even the lowest published target implies material upside relative to current levels, but the stock’s value is clearly tied to a particular Bitcoin recovery narrative.
The macro backdrop
Macro factors add to the pressure on Bitcoin today. BTC fell to $64,043 this morning amid a recent Fed rate increase, with at least three Fed officials signaling the potential for further hikes. In addition, fresh U.S.-Iran military tensions have put upward pressure on oil prices. Those conditions create a challenging environment for a company whose balance sheet and headline earnings are leveraged to Bitcoin’s market moves.
Bottom line
The company’s software revenue, forecast at about $122.93 million for the quarter, is likely to be a secondary story in the face of another large mark-to-market Bitcoin loss. The key tests for management are whether it can defend the accumulation thesis, explain the multi-week purchase pause and clarify the preferred share situation—while navigating a substantial paper loss on its BTC holdings.