S&P Global Ratings raised its long-term issuer credit rating on Gulfport Energy Corp. to 'BB-' from 'B+' and affirmed the company's issue-level rating on its senior unsecured notes at 'BB-'. The ratings firm also revised its recovery rating to '3' from '2' and maintained a stable outlook.
S&P's assessment rests on Gulfport's operational and financial track record. The agency expects the company to sustain a funds-from-operations-to-debt ratio of approximately 100% and to keep debt-to-EBITDA near 1x over the coming 12 months - assumptions that incorporate continued shareholder returns.
Key operational metrics cited by S&P include an all-in replacement ratio of 185% in 2025 and a three-year average replacement ratio of 118%. Gulfport has also expanded inventory in both the Utica wet gas and dry gas windows. S&P highlighted the company's ongoing operational discipline, a steady hedging framework and capital-efficiency measures as factors likely to support stable EBITDA and free operating cash flow over the next 12 to 24 months.
Under its base-case assumptions, S&P projects stable annual EBITDA of $950 million to $1 billion during the next 24 months, using a Henry Hub natural gas price assumption of $3.50 per million Btu. Gulfport targets debt-to-EBITDA of about 1x and has used its reserve-based lending capacity to fund share buybacks to hold leverage near that level. In its analysis, S&P assumes roughly $300 million of annual share repurchases.
Gulfport expects capital expenditures of $420 million this year versus $520 million in 2025, driven in part by lower land acquisition spending, which the company estimates at $30 million to $35 million. The operator plans to reduce activity in the Utica to a single-rig program for the remainder of 2026, down from two rigs previously, signaling a clear preference for returning capital to shareholders rather than pursuing additional production growth in the current weak gas price environment. Production is forecast to remain in the band of 1.0 billion to 1.1 billion cubic feet equivalent per day.
S&P signaled the conditions that could prompt a downgrade. The ratings agency said it could lower Gulfport's ratings if funds-from-operations-to-debt declined below 60% or if debt-to-EBITDA rose above 2x on a sustained basis. Those outcomes could result from larger-than-expected debt-financed share repurchases or from a material fall in natural gas prices below S&P's current assumptions if the company does not sufficiently scale back capital spending or shareholder distributions.
Context and implications
The upgrade reflects S&P's view that Gulfport's combination of free operating cash flow stability, hedging strategy and capital discipline supports stronger credit metrics even as the company returns capital to shareholders. The ratings action formalizes the agency's confidence in the company's near-term ability to manage leverage at about 1x debt-to-EBITDA while sustaining cash returns.