Options traders are pricing in a 4.6% move for Amgen Inc. (AMGN) when the biotechnology company releases its quarterly earnings after the market close on Aug. 4, based on options data compiled by Bloomberg.
The options-implied move serves as a market expectation for how far the stock might swing in reaction to the upcoming report. Historically, Amgen's actual post-earnings price changes have often exceeded the magnitude implied by options. In six of the company's past eight quarterly announcements, the stock's real percentage change surpassed the option market's implied move.
Specific recent instances underline the pattern. On April 30, the stock declined 4.7% while the options market had suggested a 4.6% move. Earlier in the year, in February, shares climbed 4.7% against an implied 4.0% move. Looking to 2025, the stock jumped 9.9% in November while options had signaled a 4.0% move, and the largest divergence recorded in the sample occurred in August 2025, when Amgen shares dropped 5.5% compared with an implied move of 3.2%.
There were two occasions in which the actual price change remained inside the options-implied range. In May 2025, Amgen shares increased 1.2% while the implied move was 3.1%. In October 2024, the stock moved 0.2% compared with an implied 5.2% swing.
These data points reflect comparisons between observed stock movements following earnings releases and the corresponding moves implied by options pricing at those times. The upcoming Aug. 4 report will present another instance to compare market expectations embedded in options with the stock's real post-earnings reaction.
Market context - The figures above are drawn from options data compiled by Bloomberg and reflect implied volatility and option pricing ahead of Amgen's scheduled earnings announcement on Aug. 4 after the close.