Options traders are currently pricing in an 8.8% expected move for On Holding AG Class A (NYSE: ONON) around the company’s upcoming earnings report scheduled for August 11, with the report due before the market opens, according to options data compiled by Bloomberg.
This implied move is a market consensus drawn from option prices and reflects the premium investors place on potential volatility around the earnings event. That measure does not predict direction - only the magnitude of the expected swing.
Historical post-earnings outcomes
Examining recent quarters shows that actual share-price behavior after earnings has not consistently matched implied moves. In the last eight earnings events cited, the stock’s real moves exceeded the options-implied magnitude on three occasions. The breakdown of outcomes is as follows:
- May 12: options implied a 9.7% move; shares fell 1.3%.
- March 3: implied move was 10.1%; the stock declined 7.4%.
- November 2025: shares jumped 14.7% versus an 8.8% implied move.
- August 2025: stock rose 4.6% while the implied move was 8.7%.
- May 2025: shares surged 17.4% compared with a 9.7% implied move.
- March 4, 2025: the stock gained 3.9% against a 13% implied move.
- November 2024: shares climbed 13.7% compared to an 11.1% implied move.
- August 2024: the stock rose 10.8% against an 11% implied move.
The pattern in these eight instances underscores that implied move figures can understate or overstate eventual price shifts. In several cases, actual gains or losses were substantially larger than the options market had priced in; in others, moves were smaller.
Investors using implied-move metrics should note that the number reflects expected volatility magnitude rather than direction, and that past divergence between implied and realized moves has been meaningful for this stock in multiple quarters.
What this means for market participants
Traders and portfolio managers watching ONON into the August 11 release will face an expected volatility band centered on 8.8%, but historical precedent suggests outcomes may deviate materially from that figure in either direction.