Morgan Stanley's review of June 2026 license data shows a pullback in steel shipments into North America, with total imports down 6% from May and 9% from June 2025. The bank's analysis highlights a widening of import spreads compared with May and an uptick in domestic hot-rolled coil pricing that coincided with longer lead times for domestic supply in June.
The raw tonnage data in June reflects a reduction of 0.12 million tons month-over-month and a drop of 0.18 million tons year-over-year. Product-level movements were mixed: flat products increased 3% month-over-month and pipe and tube climbed 18% month-over-month, while semi-finished items declined 5%, long products fell 30%, and stainless shipments decreased 11% on a month-over-month basis.
Morgan Stanley pointed to a sequence of market developments to explain the lower import volumes in June relative to May. The bank noted that import spreads narrowed in April after peaking in late March. In addition, the firm cited heightened uncertainty around foreign supply and a reduced availability of imported material following the start of the Middle East conflict as contributing factors to the June outcome.
On a year-to-date basis, total imports through June are approximately 10.3 million tons, which Morgan Stanley said is down 23% compared with the 2025 year-to-date total. The bank attributes the bulk of that decline to a 35% fall in flat product imports versus the 2025 year-to-date period.
Price and spread dynamics were notable in June. The hot-rolled coil import spread averaged $127 per ton, up $6 per ton from May's $121 per ton, and remained above the prior 12-month average of $97 per ton. Spot domestic hot-rolled coil prices moved higher during the first half of 2026, rising from $930 per short ton in early January to $1,155 per short ton on June 10. Platts DDP Houston import pricing also increased, climbing to $1,000 per short ton from $820 per short ton at the beginning of the year.
Market commentary included an assessment of relative attractiveness of imports. The report stated that imports remain below pre-50% Section 232 levels and noted that traders generally consider a spread above roughly $100 per ton to make foreign material economically attractive. In that context, the wider month-over-month spread increases the incentive to import.
The Nucor weekly consumer spot hot-rolled coil price held steady for two consecutive weeks at $1,130 per short ton, representing a year-to-date increase of $180 per short ton. Meanwhile, domestic hot-rolled coil lead times averaged 7.6 weeks in June, up from 7.0 weeks in May and above the five-year average of 5.5 weeks, reflecting tighter near-term domestic availability.
Key points
- June imports into North America fell 6% month-over-month and 9% year-over-year, a decline of 0.12 million tons m/m and 0.18 million tons y/y.
- Hot-rolled coil dynamics: spot domestic prices rose to $1,155 per short ton on June 10, the import spread averaged $127 per ton in June versus $121 in May, and Platts DDP Houston import price reached $1,000 per short ton.
- Total year-to-date imports through June are roughly 10.3 million tons, down 23% versus 2025, driven mainly by a 35% decline in flat product imports.
Risks and uncertainties
- Foreign supply uncertainty and reduced availability of imported material following the start of the Middle East conflict could constrain import volumes and influence domestic pricing - affecting steel producers, fabricators, and industries relying on imported steel.
- Volatility in import spreads around the $100 per ton threshold may shift the economic incentive to import, creating uncertainty for traders and buyers deciding between domestic and foreign material - relevant for commodities traders and downstream manufacturers.
- Longer domestic lead times, which averaged 7.6 weeks in June, could disrupt supply chains for producers and end-users dependent on timely deliveries, impacting construction, automotive, and industrial sectors.
Additional context from the data
Product-level monthly changes in June showed a 3% rise in flat product imports and an 18% increase in pipe and tube shipments, while semi-finished, long, and stainless categories saw declines of 5%, 30%, and 11% respectively. These shifts contributed to the overall monthly and year-to-date trends documented in the license data.
Overall, the June license data portrays a market with higher domestic prices, widening spreads that favor imports economically, but with fewer total imports year-to-date compared with 2025. Domestic lead times lengthened, indicating tighter short-term domestic supply even as import flows have decreased.