J.P. Morgan has identified what it describes as an attractive buying window in EMEA gold equities after the sector slid between 35% and 45% since the Iran-U.S. tensions began. The investment bank confirmed AngloGold Ashanti and Fresnillo as its preferred picks within the group and placed Gold Fields on Positive Catalyst Watch as it looks toward the company’s forthcoming first-half results.
The broker’s analysis finds that many EMEA gold producers are trading as if long-term gold prices will settle around $3,200 to $3,800 an ounce. That range sits roughly 10% below prevailing spot levels and is 15% to 25% lower than J.P. Morgan Commodities Research’s year-end 2026 gold projection of about $4,500 an ounce.
Despite the sector weakness, J.P. Morgan notes that company-specific catalysts remain in play, including excess cash returns to shareholders and progress on organic growth projects. The bank nevertheless adjusted its own commodity price assumptions, lowering its 2026 and 2027 gold forecasts by 8% and 15%, respectively, to roughly $4,400 an ounce and $4,300 an ounce after marking to recent forward curves.
At the same time, the commodities team trimmed its year-end 2026 gold target to about $4,500 an ounce from a prior target near $6,300 an ounce. The reduction reflects weaker exchange-traded fund flows, more measured central bank buying and softer physical demand from Asia. J.P. Morgan retained a constructive longer-term view, however, and expects structural buying to return in 2027.
AngloGold Ashanti
J.P. Morgan’s positive stance on AngloGold Ashanti rests on near-term cash-return potential and an undemanding valuation. The broker projects second-quarter EBITDA of $1.96 billion, which it says is about 7% below Bloomberg consensus, and anticipates the company will end the quarter with net cash of $455 million.
Investors, according to the note, should focus on a set of operational and financial milestones due with the results. Those include production, cost and capital expenditure guidance; operational updates such as the Obuasi ramp-up after an on-site accident and subsequent downtime in the quarter; and the execution of AngloGold’s announced $2 billion buyback programme.
Fresnillo
Fresnillo remains a top pick on the basis of cash-return potential and the prospect of a multiple re-rating. J.P. Morgan forecasts first-half EBITDA of $2.19 billion, broadly in line with consensus, and expects first-half net cash of $1.54 billion.
The broker highlights cost inflation and project updates as key focus areas for the company’s interim results, and notes investors will be watching for any commentary on the Novador project following Fresnillo’s completion of the Probe Gold acquisition.
Gold Fields and other names under watch
Gold Fields has been placed on Positive Catalyst Watch ahead of its Aug. 25 first-half results. J.P. Morgan flagged that the stock has underperformed peers by roughly 10% year to date after reports that Ghana’s government could seek to transfer control of the Tarkwa mine when its lease expires in April 2027.
The broker suggested that management updates on negotiations with the Ghanaian authorities could provide a positive catalyst and help the shares regain some lost ground. J.P. Morgan also highlighted potential progress at the Windfall project, where management had indicated an aim to secure major permits by the first-half results.
Separately, the bank pointed to the possibility of a dividend surprise at Endeavour Mining. J.P. Morgan forecasts net cash of about $180 million by the first half and estimates an interim dividend of $1.03 per share, which it notes would be above Bloomberg consensus.
Overall, J.P. Morgan’s note combines a tactical view on beaten-down equities with revised near-term metal price assumptions. The bank’s adjustments to its gold forecasts and its emphasis on company-specific catalysts underline how both macro drivers and idiosyncratic developments are expected to shape returns across the EMEA gold-mining complex.