Jefferies has reiterated an "underperform" rating on French food group Danone and kept its price target at €62, a level that implies roughly an 8% drop from the stock's last close of €67.24. The broker said slower momentum in China infant formula sales combined with rising investment requirements in the U.S. were reducing the profitability of Danone's growth.
Margins and earnings revisions
The bank reduced its operating margin forecasts for FY2026 and FY2027, projecting broadly flat margins of 13.3% and 13.1% respectively, versus a consensus view of 13.9% for both years. Jefferies also adjusted its earnings-per-share outlook, putting FY2026 EPS at €3.87, which is 0.8% below the €3.90 consensus, and FY2027 EPS at €4.04, 3.4% below consensus.
On valuation, Jefferies said it expects the stock's multiple to compress, forecasting a de-rating from 16.7 times next-twelve-month price-to-earnings to just below 15 times over the coming year.
Top-line and segment outlooks
For the third quarter, Jefferies forecasts organic sales growth of 2.4%, well under the 4.2% consensus estimate. The broker's Specialised Nutrition estimate is particularly weak at 0.2%, compared with a 4.9% consensus.
Jefferies highlighted the slowdown in China infant formula growth, estimating a rate of 4.5% in the second quarter, down from an average near 13% over the prior five quarters. The broker attributed the deceleration to the fading of the Dragon Year birth tailwind and to weaker demand for English Label products.
Jefferies warned that Aptamil's market-share advantage - built on an estimated roughly 50% English Label share compared with about 7% for China Label - could diminish if international sourcing becomes a less meaningful differentiator for Chinese consumers.
Risks in medical nutrition and channel shifts
In China Medical Nutrition, Jefferies flagged a risk that future growth may shift toward retail channels, which could dilute margins. The bank estimates a current margin profile for this business of about 35%, and cautioned that a move away from hospital- and institution-led sales toward retail and home-based care offerings - including a faster roll-out of the Fortimel retail proposition - may weigh on that margin as hospitals and health authorities pivot to volume-based purchasing.
U.S. product strategy and investment needs
In the U.S. Essential Dairy and Plant-based division, Jefferies said a return to Natural Greek yoghurt and a clean-label extension of International Delight creamers should support volumes. However, the broker noted that a prior clean-label initiative, Simply Pure, launched in 2016, was eventually withdrawn, and it expects the current portfolio push to require higher investment.
Overall, Jefferies expects Danone to reinvest most of the benefit from roughly 2% cost-of-goods inflation. The broker models advertising and promotion spending rising by about 8% and selling, general and administrative costs increasing by roughly 4%.
Analyst projections summary
- Q3 organic sales growth forecast: 2.4% (Jefferies) versus 4.2% consensus.
- Specialised Nutrition Q3 growth: 0.2% (Jefferies) versus 4.9% consensus.
- China infant formula estimated Q2 growth: 4.5%, down from an average of 13% over prior five quarters.
- Operating margin forecasts: FY2026 13.3% and FY2027 13.1% (Jefferies) versus 13.9% consensus for both years.
Jefferies' view points to a combination of slowing growth in a key market and rising investment in U.S. initiatives as central pressures on Danone's near-term profitability and valuation.