Both major U.S. home improvement chains are priced above their platform-derived fair values, but beneath that surface similarity their financial profiles diverge sharply. Home Depot trades at $350.78 versus a platform fair value of $322.68 - a stated -8.0% premium to fair value - while Lowe's sits at $218.88 against a $202.42 fair value, or -7.5% above fair value.
Investors assessing the two need to choose between a larger, pro-focused incumbent with a long record of returning cash to shareholders and a smaller rival that currently looks cheaper on cash flow metrics and appears to have room to expand shareholder payouts.
Market snapshot
| Home Depot (HD) | Lowe's (LOW) | |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $350.78 | $218.88 |
| Market Cap | $349.8B | $122.7B |
| P/E | 25.0x | 18.5x |
| FCF Yield | 4.1% | 6.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.7% | 2.3% |
Intrinsic value - Gordon Growth Model
The Gordon Growth Model values a stock as next period dividend divided by the difference between the required return and the sustainable growth rate. Using CAPM-derived discount rates in the analysis - with a risk-free rate near 4.3% plus beta times a 5% equity premium - the inputs and outputs are presented below.
| Input | Home Depot (HD) | Lowe's (LOW) |
|---|---|---|
| Current DPS | ~$9.47 | ~$5.03 |
| Required Return (CAPM) | 9.1% | 8.6% |
| Sustainable Growth Rate | 4.5% (5y rev CAGR) | 3.0% (conservative) |
| Gordon Fair Value | $215 | $93 |
| Current Price | $350.78 | $218.88 |
| Premium to GGM | +63% | +135% |
The Gordon model produces demanding valuations for both names, and it is especially punitive for Lowe's because its five-year revenue compound annual growth rate is reported as -0.8%. That top-line contraction, despite earnings growth driven by buybacks and margin expansion, reduces the sustainable growth input and pushes the model's fair value materially lower. The analysis notes that the GGM is highly sensitive to the growth rate assumption; using Home Depot's recent dividend compound annual growth rate of 8.9% as the growth parameter would make the denominator approach the discount rate and destabilize the output. These results are best viewed as relative guides rather than absolute price targets.
Free cash flow - a cleaner lens
Free cash flow is less prone to accounting adjustments than reported earnings, and it paints a different picture of relative value and distribution capacity.
| Metric | Home Depot (HD) | Lowe's (LOW) |
|---|---|---|
| FCF Yield | 4.1% | 6.2% |
| FCF Payout Ratio | 64.2% | 35.0% |
| CROIC | 19.4% | 25.8% |
| EV / EBITDA | 16.5x | 13.1x |
| P/E (LTM) | 25.0x | 18.5x |
| P/E (Forward) | 23.7x | 17.9x |
On multiple valuation measures Lowe's appears cheaper. Its 6.2% free cash flow yield implies more cash generated per dollar invested, and the 35% FCF payout ratio suggests significant capacity for dividend increases, share repurchases or debt reduction. By contrast, Home Depot's FCF payout ratio at 64.2% is more elevated.
Dividend comparison
| Metric | Home Depot (HD) | Lowe's (LOW) |
|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.7% | 2.3% |
| 5-Year Dividend CAGR | 8.9% | 14.9% |
| Latest Div Growth | 1.3% | 8.7% |
| Payout Ratio (Net Income) | 65.6% | 40.1% |
| Payout Ratio (FCF) | 64.2% | 35.0% |
| Shareholder Yield | 2.0% | -0.5% |
Home Depot has been the steady dividend compounder, with a higher current yield and a five-year dividend CAGR of 8.9%. However, recent dividend growth has slowed to 1.3%, and the payout is consuming roughly 65.6% of net income, a level that may concern income-focused investors. Lowe's, by contrast, has delivered a 14.9% five-year dividend CAGR and recorded the latest dividend increase of 8.7%. With only 40.1% of earnings paid out as dividends and a 35.0% FCF payout, Lowe's management retains considerable optionality to boost payouts or repurchase shares.
Cost of goods sold and purchasing power
| COGS Metric | Home Depot (HD) | Lowe's (LOW) |
|---|---|---|
| COGS Margin (Latest FY) | 66.7% | 66.5% |
| COGS Margin (5y Avg) | ~66.6% | ~66.7% |
| Absolute COGS (Latest) | $109.8B | $57.4B |
| Gross Margin (Implied) | 33.3% | 33.5% |
Gross margins are nearly identical across the two retailers. A marginal improvement in COGS percentage points at this scale translates to substantial dollar savings. For Home Depot, which reported $109.8B in COGS, a 10-basis-point improvement in purchasing would save approximately $110 million - roughly double the dollar benefit Lowe's would realize from the same basis-point improvement due to Lowe's smaller base.
Scale and market share
| Scale Metric | Home Depot (HD) | Lowe's (LOW) |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (FY2026) | $164.7B | $86.3B |
| Market Cap | $349.8B | $122.7B |
| Enterprise Value | $411.9B | $164.5B |
| Store Count | 2,360+ | ~1,700+ |
| Employees | 470,000+ | ~300,000+ |
| Share of Combined Revenue | 65.6% | 34.4% |
Home Depot is roughly twice the size of Lowe's on revenue and market cap. The company has reorganized to accelerate its professional contractor push, creating an Office of Pro Acceleration and directing assets including HD Supply, SRS and Construction Resources toward an estimated $700 billion professional contractor total addressable market. Lowe's has traditionally emphasized the DIY homeowner channel.
Housing exposure and customer mix
Both retailers are linked to housing-related spending, but they capture different parts of the value chain. Repair and remodel activity is driven by the existing housing stock rather than new construction. With around 130 million housing units in the U.S. and a median age near 40 years, there is a structural repair-and-remodel tailwind. Within this market, Home Depot reports that professional contractors account for roughly 50% of its revenue. Pro customers tend to be less rate sensitive, purchase in bulk and generate recurring revenue. Home Depot's Construction Resources showrooms are positioned to serve high-value interior design and complex project needs.
Lowe's historically tilts toward the DIY homeowner, a customer set that is more sensitive to consumer confidence and interest rates. Recent survey-based commentary cited in the analysis describes DIY trends as "stable and slightly improving." Additionally, sector-specific signals such as shingles shipment data for Q2 2026 - which rose 1% in North America after a 12% decline the prior quarter - serve as leading indicators for repair revenue. One analyst firm maintained a Buy on Home Depot tied to improving roofing trends.
Balance sheet and leverage
| Balance Sheet | Home Depot (HD) | Lowe's (LOW) |
|---|---|---|
| Total Debt | $63.7B | $42.6B |
| Debt / Equity | 459.4% | -459.1% |
| Current Ratio | 1.0x | 1.1x |
| Beta | 0.96 | 0.85 |
Lowe's carries negative shareholder equity on its balance sheet - a consequence of extensive buybacks and pension adjustments that have reduced book value. The analysis notes this is largely an accounting outcome rather than a sign of insolvency; Lowe's has $42.6B in debt against $86.3B in revenue and steady free cash flow. Lowe's also exhibits lower market volatility based on a beta of 0.85 versus Home Depot's 0.96.
Analyst consensus, earnings and short-term timing
On analyst targets, Wall Street assigns materially more upside to Lowe's than to Home Depot. The platform fair values used in the comparison are $322.68 for Home Depot and $202.42 for Lowe's, with reported fair value upside of -8.0% and -7.5% respectively versus current prices. The analyst consensus upside figures are 7.6% for Home Depot and 23.4% for Lowe's. The consensus rating mix is predominantly Buy with 24 Buy, 10 Hold and 1 Sell across the two chains combined. Specific firm views cited include an Overweight from JPMorgan with a $252 target for Lowe's and a higher Home Depot target from another firm that sees upside tied to pro segment growth.
Both companies reported first-quarter earnings beats: Home Depot reported EPS of $3.43 versus an estimate of $3.41 (a 0.6% surprise), while Lowe's reported $3.03 versus $2.97 (a 2.0% surprise). The firms were scheduled to report second-quarter results this week, with Home Depot reporting pre-market on August 18 and Lowe's pre-market on August 19. The analysis suggests that post-earnings price reactions could provide better entry points for patient investors.
Decision framework and take
The investors' choice depends on priorities. If the objective is the largest housing exposure and a structural moat built around professional contractors, Home Depot's size, scale and the $700 billion pro contractor target market give it the structural edge. Its Office of Pro Acceleration and Construction Resources initiative are declared multi-year growth vectors.
For value-oriented investors focused on free cash flow yield, lower current valuation multiples and an apparent runway for dividend and capital return acceleration, Lowe's is positioned as the more financially disciplined option. Despite negative shareholder equity on an accounting basis, the company has cash flow and revenue scale to service its $42.6B of debt. The wider analyst upside assigned to Lowe's is another factor supporting that view.
Both names trade above the platform fair values noted earlier, and both report earnings this week. Those results could create more attractive entry points for either stock depending on the market's reaction.