Investor focus is set to shift toward the U.S. midterm elections, which lie about three months ahead, and Goldman Sachs strategists led by Ben Snider say that this shift is likely to lift economic policy uncertainty and weigh on equity index stability.
Goldman notes that in prior midterm cycles, economic policy uncertainty typically rises in August ahead of the vote and remains elevated in the months that follow. The strategists argue that this historical pattern supports a case for holding equity index volatility in the near term, as political developments join other macro forces driving market attention.
At the same time, the firm highlights a structural divergence within the equity market. Correlations across individual stocks are at record-low levels, a dynamic that has helped suppress volatility at the index level even as volatility at the stock and factor levels has increased. According to the note, the persistence of the AI trade and strategies that overwrite positions are likely to continue exerting downward pressure on cross-stock correlations.
Despite those dampening forces, Goldman expects that renewed emphasis on macro issues - including elections, geopolitics, and interest-rate volatility - will push index volatility higher as the current earnings season concludes. In other words, idiosyncratic stock moves have not yet translated into equivalent index swings, but that balance could shift as macro headlines gain prominence.
Goldman’s strategists also point to the historical pattern for the S&P 500 around midterm elections. Looking across 13 midterm election years since 1974, the index has produced a median return of 0% from the start of August through Election Day. Returns have typically improved after the vote, with a median gain of 6% in the three months that followed those elections.
Flows into U.S. equities have echoed this behavior. The strategists say mutual funds and foreign investors tend to reduce U.S. equity demand ahead of the vote and then add back exposure afterward, mirroring the index’s subdued run-up and subsequent recovery in many past cycles.
Interest-rate developments are another focal point. Real 10-year yields are described as being at their highest level since 2023, while the real 30-year yield is approaching 3%. Goldman notes a rule of thumb: equities typically struggle when interest rates rise by more than two standard deviations over a given period. With current volatility metrics, that two-standard-deviation threshold equates roughly to a 50 basis point one-month move in 10-year yields.
On the likely political outcome, prediction markets currently signal about an 85% probability that Democrats retake the House, with the Senate appearing more of a toss-up. The strategists say that this alignment of probabilities reduces the chances of a major legislative surprise, and they emphasize that recent political uncertainty has often been disconnected from legislative policy outcomes.
Still, investors are watching the midterms for broader signals that could be relevant to the 2028 election cycle. Goldman points out that few parts of the market have shown a consistent, reliable response to shifting election odds so far. The most notable moves in prediction markets this year have tracked energy prices more closely than sector or factor returns, though Consumer Discretionary has exhibited a modest negative correlation to rising Republican odds.
Inflation remains the primary concern among voters according to survey data cited in the note. Goldman highlights that prediction-market odds for a Democratic sweep have moved in step with gasoline prices in recent months, underlining how energy cost swings and inflation dynamics can influence political probability markets.
What this means for market participants
- Index volatility may rise near term as political and macro headlines become more prominent.
- Low cross-stock correlations have so far muted index moves despite elevated stock-level volatility, but that dynamic could change as attention shifts to elections and rates.
- Flows from mutual funds and foreign investors historically decline ahead of midterms and reaccelerate afterward, a pattern that has influenced past short-term performance.
The strategists’ note underscores a complex interplay of factors - policy uncertainty, rate moves, sector dynamics, and positioning - that investors will need to monitor in the run-up to the midterms.