Deutsche Bank has started coverage of Norwegian defence firm Kongsberg Gruppen ASA, assigning a "buy" recommendation and setting a price target of NOK360. In its opening note, the bank framed Kongsberg as having evolved into a full-spectrum, missile-led defence prime with favourable geographic diversification.
Analyst Sriram Krishnan highlighted several concrete metrics underpinning his positive stance. Kongsberg is carrying an all-time-high backlog of NOK158 billion, and management has a 2029 revenue target of NOK100 billion. Deutsche Bank said that target is supported by the record backlog together with rapid capacity expansion across the business.
On business-line forecasts, Deutsche Bank projects the missiles division will expand quickly, estimating a compound annual growth rate of about 40% through 2030. The research note states that the missiles unit is expected to become the group’s largest business, driven in part by a planned 50% increase in cruise missile capacity and a fast ramp-up of the Zone5 low-cost missile line.
Beyond missiles, the broker models roughly 30% compound annual growth for Kongsberg’s high-margin air defence and remote weapon stations segment. Meanwhile, the underwater and space operations within the company’s Discovery division are forecast to grow at around 12% per year.
Krishnan also pointed to margin potential. He suggested that, given the current backlog and capacity trajectory, Kongsberg could develop into one of Europe’s fastest-growing and most profitable defence primes, with potential margin upside versus what he described as conservative internal management targets.
Contextual notes
- Deutsche Bank initiated coverage with a buy rating and NOK360 price target.
- Kongsberg’s 2029 revenue target of NOK100 billion is said to be underpinned by a NOK158 billion backlog and rapid capacity expansion.
- The broker forecasts about 40% CAGR for the missiles business to 2030, 30% for air defence and remote weapon stations, and about 12% for underwater and space within Discovery.
The note presents Kongsberg as shifting toward a missile-led revenue mix and scaling production capacity significantly. It also emphasizes that management’s revenue and margin assumptions are relatively conservative compared with Deutsche Bank’s projections.