Basic-Fit NV (AS:BFIT) shares climbed over 9% on Wednesday following an upgrade by UBS, which moved the Amsterdam-listed low-cost gym operator from neutral to buy and raised its 12-month price target to €43.50 from €23.50.
UBS’s valuation rests on a discounted cash flow model using a 9.1% weighted average cost of capital, a 2% terminal growth rate and an EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.8x, producing the €43.50 target. The broker also ran a reverse DCF which, in its view, implies the current market price only supports mid-term annual growth of roughly 7-8% - below UBS’s central scenario of about 12% annual growth.
From a multiples perspective UBS notes Basic-Fit trades at 6.9x 12-month forward EV/EBITDA and 17x price-to-earnings. Those multiples represent a 24% and 29% discount respectively to the company’s post-COVID averages of 9x EV/EBITDA and 23.9x P/E, using UBS’s data.
UBS highlighted three factors it believes the market is under-appreciating: the core business’s ability to generate higher returns as the pace of owned-club openings slows, potential improvements in the German business following recent expansion, and the profitability uplift that the franchise model can provide. "We see an improving risk-reward with the market under-appreciating 3 key factors," UBS analysts said.
Cash flow trajectory is a central plank in UBS’s case. Basic-Fit produced positive free cash flow of €26.10 million in 2025, the first positive free cash flow figure since listing. UBS projects free cash flow rising to €147 million in 2026 and €232 million in 2027. Those gains are modelled on several assumptions, including a slower pace of owned-club openings - forecast at 60 net per year from 2026 - and declining capital expenditures, with capex estimated at €258 million in 2026 versus €341 million in 2024.
On profitability, return on invested capital was 4.6% in 2025. UBS expects this to climb to 14.5% by 2028, up from the current level of approximately 6% and aligning with management’s target of low-to-mid teens over a three-to-five-year horizon.
Revenue is projected to rise from €1.42 billion in 2025 to €1.64 billion in 2026 and €1.86 billion in 2027. UBS’s revenue estimate for 2026 sits at the lower bound of company guidance, which ranges from €1.64 billion to €1.69 billion. Underlying EBITDA less rent is forecast at €435 million for 2026, a figure 1.6% above Visible Alpha consensus of €428 million and inside company guidance of €415 million to €455 million, according to UBS data.
UBS has incorporated the November 2025 acquisition of Clever Fit into its modelling. That deal was completed at an acquisition multiple of 11-12x EV/EBITDA and had an enterprise value of €160 million with a possible €15 million earn-out. The transaction added 493 clubs to Basic-Fit’s portfolio and increased the company’s Germany footprint to more than 450 clubs. Management’s stated target is 1,000 clubs in Germany by 2036.
Customer metrics in UBS’s model show average revenue per user at €25.70 per month in 2026, rising to €27.80 by 2030. Members per club were 2,902 in 2025 and UBS projects this to reach 3,328 by 2030.
On an EPS basis, UBS’s adjusted diluted forecasts are €1.55 in 2026, €2.94 in 2027 and €4.35 in 2028. These sit above consensus estimates of €1.36, €2.19 and €3.02 for the same years, respectively, in UBS’s data set.
Balance-sheet dynamics are a feature of the broker’s outlook. Net debt was €3.05 billion at end-2025 and UBS forecasts this to fall to €2.95 billion in 2026 and to €1.53 billion by 2030. That implies leverage of about 2.2x net debt to EBITDA in 2026 under UBS’s assumptions.
Implications for markets and investors
- UBS’s upgrade and higher target drove an immediate share-price response, reflecting investor focus on the company’s projected cash-flow improvement.
- The valuation gap to post-COVID multiples and the broker’s return-on-invested-capital trajectory underpin the buy case in UBS’s view.
- Key operational levers in UBS’s model include slower owned-club openings, capex normalization, the integration of Clever Fit in Germany and franchise profitability gains.
Basic-Fit’s share move underscores the sensitivity of market valuations to analysts’ assumptions about growth, capital intensity and margin recovery. UBS’s analysis ties those assumptions into explicit cash-flow and leverage pathways that support a markedly higher target price, but the current market multiple still reflects a discount to historical post-COVID norms, according to the broker’s data.