Traders and analysts will navigate a concentrated set of macro releases on Wednesday, July 1, 2026, that collectively touch on labor market momentum, manufacturing-sector health and energy market inventories. The lineup features the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change early in the session, followed by purchasing-manager surveys for manufacturing and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing composite, and concludes with the Energy Information Administration's weekly crude-oil inventory tally.
Each release carries the potential to reshape market expectations for growth, inflation and sector-specific demand, with the ADP report acting as a private-sector barometer ahead of the official government payrolls data, the PMIs revealing trends in factory orders and production, and the EIA report offering a snapshot of U.S. crude supplies that can affect petroleum pricing.
Major Economic Events to Watch
- 7:15 AM ET - ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Forecast: 118K, Previous: 122K) - This series measures the monthly change in private-sector payrolls based on payroll data gathered from roughly 400,000 U.S. businesses. Market participants view it as a leading indicator ahead of the government's official employment report.
- 8:45 AM ET - Manufacturing PMI (Forecast: 55.7, Previous: 55.1) - The Manufacturing PMI captures purchasing managers' assessments of activity within the manufacturing sector. Readings above 50 denote expansion while readings below 50 indicate contraction.
- 9:00 AM ET - ISM Manufacturing PMI (Forecast: 53.8, Previous: 54.0) - The ISM manufacturing index is a composite derived from survey responses submitted by more than 400 industrial firms, encompassing new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries and inventories in the factory sector.
- 9:30 AM ET - EIA Crude Oil Inventories (Forecast: -4.800M, Previous: -6.088M) - The weekly change in commercial crude oil barrels held by U.S. firms is closely watched because inventory draws or builds influence petroleum prices and can feed into broader inflation expectations.
Other Important Economic Events to Watch
- 6:00 AM ET - Mortgage Refinance Index (Previous: 834.2) - This index tracks all mortgage applications to refinance existing loans and is generally considered the most comprehensive gauge of refinancing activity.
- 8:00 AM ET - Fed Governor Warsh Speaks - Remarks from the former Federal Reserve governor and former FOMC voting member may offer insights into monetary policy thinking and are therefore monitored for any fresh signals on policy direction.
- 9:00 AM ET - Construction Spending (Forecast: 0.1%, Previous: 0.4%) - This series measures the month-to-month change in total construction expenditures. The release is noted for being subject to sizable revisions.
- 9:00 AM ET - ISM Manufacturing Prices (Forecast: 77.7, Previous: 82.1) - The ISM prices-diffusion index gauges input cost pressures within manufacturing and is used as an indicator of inflationary trends in the sector.
- 9:00 AM ET - ISM Manufacturing Employment (Previous: 48.6) - A subcomponent of the ISM manufacturing report, this series tracks employment conditions specifically within factories.
- 9:30 AM ET - EIA Weekly Cushing Oil Inventories (Previous: -1.077M) - This report shows the weekly change in crude barrels stored at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for the West Texas Intermediate benchmark.
- 10:30 AM ET - Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Forecast: 2.5%, Previous: 2.5%) - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model produces a running estimate of real GDP growth for the current quarter using available economic data and relying solely on mathematical modeling without subjective adjustments.
Additional Releases on the Schedule
- 4:30 AM ET - Challenger Job Cuts (Previous: 97.006K) - The monthly Challenger report compiles announced layoffs across industries and regions, offering perspective on labor-market pressures.
- 6:00 AM ET - MBA Mortgage Applications (Previous: 1.0%) - Weekly change in new mortgage applications compiled by the Mortgage Bankers Association.
- 6:00 AM ET - Mortgage Market Index (Previous: 272.1) - An aggregate measure covering all mortgage applications during the week, including conventional and government-backed loans, and fixed- and adjustable-rate products.
- 6:00 AM ET - MBA Purchase Index (Previous: 169.7) - This index tracks mortgage applications for single-family home purchases and is used as a near-term indicator of home sales activity.
- 6:00 AM ET - MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Previous: 6.59%) - The weekly quoted rate for 30-year fixed mortgages at 80% loan-to-value, reported by the MBA.
- 9:00 AM ET - ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index (Previous: 56.8) - The new orders component, which carries a 30% weight in the ISM composite, signals demand for manufactured goods.
- 9:30 AM ET - EIA Weekly Refinery Utilization Rates (Previous: -0.6%) - Measures the percentage of refinery capacity in use during the reported week.
- 9:30 AM ET - Gasoline Inventories (Previous: 2.064M) - Weekly change in commercial gasoline barrels in inventory.
- 9:30 AM ET - EIA Weekly Crude Imports (Previous: 0.094M) - Weekly change in crude oil imports into the United States.
- 9:30 AM ET - EIA Weekly Heatoil Stock (Previous: 0.722M) - Inventory levels of heating oil, a key distillate product.
- 9:30 AM ET - EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks (Previous: 3.064M) - Measures stock levels of distillate fuel oil, including diesel and heating oil.
- 9:30 AM ET - EIA Weekly Gasoline Production (Previous: -0.588M) - Tracks weekly gasoline output from U.S. refineries.
- 9:30 AM ET - EIA Refinery Crude Runs (Previous: -0.081M) - The volume of crude processed by refineries during the reported week.
- 9:30 AM ET - EIA Weekly Distillate Fuel Production (Previous: 0.055M) - Weekly production levels of distillate fuels at U.S. refineries.
For market participants, the day’s releases form a compact surveillance package across labor, manufacturing and energy. The ADP reading will be watched for signs of hiring momentum in the private sector, while the PMI readings - both the broader Manufacturing PMI and the ISM composite - will shed light on order flows, production and near-term supply-chain conditions. The EIA crude numbers, if they deviate from expectations, can quickly alter crude and refined product price trajectories and feed into inflation conversations.
Investors and strategists should also note the presence of speeches and model-based growth estimates on the day, notably remarks from a former Federal Reserve governor and the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow running estimate. Those items can interact with the hard data to shape market narratives about growth and monetary policy.
For continuous updates on release times and subsequent revisions, market participants are advised to consult the Economic Calendar maintained by their information providers.