June 16 - U.S. stock index futures were largely subdued on Tuesday as market participants shifted focus to the first interest rate announcement under newly appointed Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh. In the premarket, pockets of strength in technology helped offset the overall cautious tone, while SpaceX continued to extend its post-IPO gains for a third consecutive session.
SpaceX shares climbed about 10% in premarket trading, a move that leaves the space and AI company on track to surpass Amazon in market capitalization and become the worlds fifth-largest company if momentum persists. Memory-chip names also posted gains: Micron Technology, Western Digital and Seagate Technology rose in a band between 2.9% and 4.8%.
Market sentiment on Monday received a lift when the blue-chip Dow closed at a record high after U.S. President Donald Trump said a preliminary agreement to end the conflict had been signed by the U.S. and Iran. That announcement pushed oil prices sharply lower and helped ease some inflation worries. Nonetheless, uncertainty remained, with shippers warning it could take weeks for confidence to return even after any reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave its target range unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% at the conclusion of its policy meeting on Wednesday. Investors are closely watching Chairman Warshs remarks for his assessment of inflation, the labor market and the broader economic outlook - commentary that could shape expectations for the path of monetary policy under his stewardship.
Inflation remains a central concern: it appears to be more than a percentage point above the Feds 2% target, and how Warsh characterizes the prospects for it to return toward target will be an important early indication of the new leaderships views. Traders, via CME Groups FedWatch tool, assign a 42% probability to a 25 basis-point rate hike in December, and they do not expect rate cuts until after mid-2027.
Adding to the global rate backdrop, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates to a 31-year high earlier on Tuesday, citing price pressures tied to the energy shock from the Iran war.
At 5:58 a.m. ET, S&P 500 e-minis were down about 6 points, or 0.08%. Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up roughly 5.25 points, or 0.02%, and Dow e-minis added approximately 20 points, or 0.04%. The benchmark S&P 500 remained close to early-June record levels after a recent slump that had been driven by concerns over elevated valuations in the technology sector and the U.S.-Iran conflict.
In individual stock news, Qualcomm shares rose 3.8% following reports that the chipmaker was in talks to acquire AI chip startup Tenstorrent for a sum in the range of $8 billion to $10 billion. In contrast, entertainment operator Dave & Busters Entertainment saw its shares drop 13.3% after reporting first-quarter results that missed analysts expectations for both earnings and revenue.
With major central banks in focus and notable moves in select technology and memory-chip names, investors entered the Feds decision day balancing the potential for market-moving commentary from Warsh against ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and company-specific results.