SpaceX’s stock continued to exhibit pronounced volatility on Tuesday, briefly trading under its opening level from the first day of public trading before rallying later in the session as the broader technology sector pulled back. Since shares began trading on June 12, the company’s stock has climbed as much as 67% from that start and has also retreated approximately 35% from the subsequent peak.
Analysts and market participants said the recent price swings are not necessarily evidence of a change in investor views on SpaceX’s underlying prospects. Instead, they point to the unusual circumstances surrounding the firm’s record $75 billion initial public offering - a torrent of pre-IPO information followed by several days of relative silence - which has left traders to react to a small set of new signals.
Trading drivers ahead
Traders expect a sequence of corporate and index-related events to substantially influence SpaceX’s order flow in the coming days and weeks. Some of those developments are likely to create fresh demand for shares, while others could provide opportunities for selling.
- FTSE Russell’s scheduled index reconstitution this Friday is expected to add SpaceX to Russell indexes. Passive investors tracking those benchmarks could drive an estimated $2.68 billion of inflows tied to that inclusion.
- SpaceX has a planned 13th Starship flight on June 29.
- The company is slated for addition to the Nasdaq 100 index on July 6.
- July 7 marks the end of the quiet period that has limited publication of research by the investment banks involved in the IPO.
- Inclusion in major ETFs such as the Invesco QQQ Trust and the iShares Russell 1000 ETF, which track the Nasdaq and Russell indices respectively, is also expected once index additions take effect.
Todd Rosenbluth, head of research and editorial at TMX VettaFi, noted that the market has anticipated the ETF inclusions, but pointed out that these funds will still need to buy on the actual day of inclusion because index funds cannot trade far in advance. That mechanical demand could underpin the stock on days when these passive vehicles execute their required purchases.
Market context and recent price action
Tuesday’s session coincided with a broader pullback among technology names, with the Nasdaq and major AI-related equities experiencing declines. The stock oscillated through the day, falling to as low as $147.11 before recovering to trade higher later in the session at $162.80. Market watchers have identified a cluster of price levels that often trigger automatic sell orders, including the June 12 opening price of $150 and the IPO price of $135, which may have amplified intraday moves.
Bespoke Investment Group commented that if certain levels hold they could be read optimistically as a "test" of support, but if those levels break it "could mark a sentiment shift for the more high-flying areas of the market."
Options traders shift stance
Options-market activity around SpaceX has moved from an early rush of bullish bets to a more balanced, two-way dynamic. Traders who bought calls in the immediate aftermath of the IPO have increasingly been matched by participants using puts or other defensive positions.
Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, said: "The options activity has gotten more balanced. It’s not as completely euphoric as it was day one." Options pricing and positioning show notable hedging ahead of potential downside scenarios. Susquehanna Financial Group strategist Christopher Jacobson estimated that traders are placing about a 40% probability on the stock trading below $130 by mid-September.
Data from LSEG indicate that for contracts expiring from July through September with strike prices between $125 and $190 there are nearly two puts for each open call, suggesting defensive positioning among some market participants. While overall SpaceX options still lean slightly bullish in the aggregate, the concentration of put activity in those expirations and strikes highlights trader caution.
The article’s explanation of options terminology is aligned with market convention: calls convey the right to buy shares at a fixed price in the future, while puts offer the right to sell at a fixed price.
Lockups, phased releases and potential selling
Like most newly public companies, SpaceX has set up restrictions on insider sales, but it has created exceptions for certain participants and outlined a phased release of restricted shares. Those releases are tied in part to company performance and stock-price targets, which means that some shareholders could begin selling stock earlier than a standard six-month window if specified conditions are met.
Ophir Gottlieb, chief executive of Capital Market Laboratories and an investor in SpaceX since a 2022 funding round, said: "I don’t think this is unusual given the performance of hot IPOs in the immediate term post offering and the need for hedges surrounding unlock periods." That view underscores market expectations that unlock-related hedging and actual sales may be a material factor in trading flows around earnings and subsequent milestones.
Some investors and traders are watching those potential releases closely because they can create concentrated supply at points in time when demand from passive indexers or ETF inclusion may also be acting on the buy side.
What to watch next
In the near term, market participants said the combination of index additions, ETF flows, the end of quiet periods enabling bank research, and the timing of phased share releases will likely determine whether the recent pattern of sharp intraday swings continues or whether the stock settles into a more stable trading range. Given the interplay of these mechanical and discretionary forces, predicting the net effect is difficult; each event could independently lean bullish or bearish for the shares depending on how investors choose to act.
For now, the market remains focused on the calendar of events tied to index inclusions, ETF mechanics, options expirations and unlock schedules as the primary potential catalysts for further volatility in SpaceX stock.