Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
6,933 total articles
UBS Asset Management's annual Reserve Manager Survey of roughly 30 central bank reserve managers found a majority now sees stagflation as the most probable five-year scenario. Persistent inflation, rising U.S. rates and higher long-term yields have shifted priorities for reserve investing, accelerating moves toward diversification, reducing U.S. as…
Oman has informed European officials that a return to pre-war conditions in the Strait of Hormuz is not feasible and that ships using the passage could face charges for services such as de-pollution or navigation assistance. Omani officials said they will operate within international maritime law, but it remains unclear whether any fees would be co…
John Bolton, who served as national security adviser to President Donald Trump from April 2018 to September 2019, pleaded guilty in federal court in Maryland to one criminal count of retaining national defense information. The plea carries a statutory maximum prison term of five years and a potential fine of $2.25 million. A number of related charg…
Short-term U.S. Treasury yields fell on Friday after oil prices softened following an increase in crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. That traffic reached its highest level since the start of the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran. Market participants are weighing the outlook for Fed policy as inflation remains above the 2% target and as some …
The U.S. Department of the Treasury announced sanctions on eight individuals and entities tied to procurement and recruitment networks supporting the warring parties in Sudan. The Office of Foreign Assets Control targeted firms and people linked to the Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, citing the humanitarian toll of …
A University of Michigan survey found U.S. consumer sentiment rose in June to a final reading of 49.5 from 44.8 in May, signaling a modest recovery from recent lows. Despite the uptick, more than half of households continued to cite high prices as a drag on personal finances, and inflation expectations remain above pre-crisis norms over the next ye…
A joint survey by Citi and YouGov found that British public expectations for future inflation eased in June. Long-run expectations fell to 3.9% from 4.0% in May, while expectations for the year ahead dropped to 3.8% from 4.7%. Citi economist Callum McLaren-Stewart said the decline reduces the risk of expectations becoming deanchored and noted the m…
Germany’s draft budget for 2027 has been completed after Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil and cabinet colleagues agreed on ministry allocations and measures to eliminate an initial €21 billion shortfall. The gap was closed in part by drawing on a €9.7 billion reserve, and the cabinet is scheduled to approve the government draft on July 6. Officials …
Polymarket reported to CNBC that its annualized revenue has exceeded $1 billion as trading activity reached record levels. The platform's international service registered all-time-high volumes driven by engagement with the FIFA World Cup, while the U.S. platform saw daily trading climb from roughly $50 million in mid-May to more than $200 million b…
Morgan Stanley reiterated its baseline call that the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates through the end of the year, but cautioned that a drop in the unemployment rate below 4.0% or sustained higher inflation readings could force policymakers to consider additional rate hikes. Analyst Michael Gapen cited recent data, lower oil pri…
Marlene Amstad, president of Swiss market regulator FINMA and chair of an international supervisory technology forum, said regulators and banks must accelerate adoption of new technology to close gaps that AI is exposing in financial systems. FINMA has helped create a forum within the International Organization of Securities Commissions to promote …
A Reuters poll of economists taken June 23-25 shows a growing consensus that the U.S. Federal Reserve will maintain its benchmark policy rate through the end of the year, even as financial markets price in two increases. With inflation running above 4%, solid economic growth and a resilient labor market, economists point to a split Fed and evolving…
U.S. equity markets are closing a strong first half of 2026, but investor attention has shifted to next week’s jobs report, the Federal Reserve’s hawkish posture on inflation, and outsized moves in semiconductor stocks. Economic data and corporate earnings will influence short-term rate expectations and market volatility as oil prices retreat amid …
Futures tied to the Nasdaq fell as semiconductor stocks cooled after a Micron-led surge the previous session. Renewed selling hit memory and AI-sensitive chip names, while megacap movements were mixed. Investors also tracked signals from inflation data, Fed commentary and prospective index reclassifications amid choppy trading.
Bank of America found that consumer spending in cities hosting FIFA World Cup 2026 matches increased 6.3% year-over-year during the tournament's group stage, driven largely by a 16.7% rise in in-person transactions from non-local visitors. The bank's analysis used aggregated credit and debit card data to track both transaction volumes and total spe…
Global equity fund inflows dropped sharply to a net $7.51 billion in the week to June 24, driven by investor caution over debt-financed technology spending and lingering interest rate concerns after higher-than-expected PCE inflation data. Bond funds continued to attract cash for a 12th straight week while money market withdrawals hit their largest…
A European Central Bank survey in May found consumers trimmed their one-year inflation expectations to 3.5% from 4.0% in April, while three- and five-year outlooks held at 2.9% and 2.4% respectively. The results suggest reduced short-term inflation pressure on the ECB even as markets price additional rate hikes and policymakers remain split on timi…
The first half of the year ends after a turbulent six months and market attention shifts toward central bank action and a slate of economic data. Key near-term catalysts include the U.S. June payrolls report, the European Central Bank’s Sintra gathering where the new Federal Reserve chair will appear, euro zone inflation data, Britain’s political t…
U.S. futures moved unevenly as investors digested weak technology sentiment and reports that OpenAI may push its IPO to 2027 while seeking a $1 trillion valuation. Concerns over rising component costs after Apple’s price increases added pressure. Meanwhile, SpaceX is reportedly exploring a Starlink-branded mobile phone service in the U.S., South Ko…
Goldman Sachs calculates that the United Kingdom’s economy is roughly 6% smaller than it would have been if the country had remained in the European Union, up from a 5% shortfall estimated two years ago. Using a synthetic 'Doppelgänger' comparator built from peer countries, the bank attributes the loss to weaker goods and services trade, stalled bu…
A government proposal to introduce a funded pension component and link retirement age to life expectancy aims to relieve long-term pressure on Germany’s pay-as-you-go system. While the measures could reduce future burdens on younger cohorts, analysts warn the transition will still leave those under 45 carrying a significant share of pension costs a…
Rising memory and storage costs tied to growth in AI data centres are forcing consumer electronics makers to pass through higher prices, a development highlighted by Apple’s decision to raise prices on iPads and MacBooks while keeping iPhone pricing intact. Micron’s strong results and $22 billion of customer supply commitments underline tightening …
The U.S. dollar has strengthened entering the second half of 2026, rising about 3% in the first half as investors bet on further Federal Reserve rate hikes and flock to American assets tied to the AI-led economic upswing. The move has pushed the dollar to multi-decade highs versus some currencies, encouraged record inflows into U.S. equities, and f…
The Japanese yen held steady near a 40-year low against the U.S. dollar on Friday, halting a sharp upward move in the greenback. Market participants recalibrated expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes after U.S. inflation figures met forecasts and central bank officials offered conflicting views on future policy direction. While the dollar ind…
South Korea is initiating a historic transition to continuous, 24-hour currency trading starting July 6, prompting a massive operational overhaul for its banking sector. To secure coveted developed-market status and attract global capital, regulators are removing longstanding currency controls, including permits for offshore investors to hold won a…
