Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
6,933 total articles
The average rate on the U.S. 30-year fixed mortgage rose to 6.22% this week, the highest level since early December, driven by market reactions to conflict in the Middle East that pushed oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields higher. The increase reverses a recent dip to 5.98% after federal directives expanded mortgage-backed securities purchases, and…
The International Monetary Fund said it is closely tracking the Iran war and related interruptions to seaborne oil and gas flows, cautioning that a sustained rise in energy prices would lift global inflation and shave economic growth. The IMF noted crude has climbed more than 50% to exceed $100 a barrel, has not received formal requests for emergen…
Jeffrey Gundlach of DoubleLine Capital pointed to a swift 50 basis point rise in the U.S. two-year Treasury yield over a period of under three weeks and suggested the move could indicate a forthcoming Federal Reserve rate increase. The two-year reached 3.928% on Thursday morning before easing to about 3.8%. Market pricing in Fed fund futures still …
Speaking in Doha on Thursday, Turkey's Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said Ankara is offering "friendly" counsel to Tehran to prevent its war with the United States and Israel from spreading across the Middle East. Fidan described Iran's attacks on regional countries as unacceptable, acknowledged Israel as the main actor in the conflict, and stressed…
Senator Elizabeth Warren has asked Kevin Warsh, President Donald Trump's nominee for Federal Reserve chair, to explain the nature and extent of any interactions with Jeffrey Epstein after Warsh's name surfaced in government-released documents tied to Epstein. Warren, the top Democrat on the Senate Banking Committee, asked Warsh to respond by March …
Most developed market central banks left policy rates unchanged this week while warning they are prepared to raise borrowing costs if an energy shock from the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran pushes inflation higher. Traders have trimmed expectations for cuts by the Federal Reserve and increased bets on hikes from other central banks. Australia rema…
The European Central Bank left its main interest rate unchanged at 2% and highlighted the war in the Middle East as a growing risk to growth and inflation in the euro zone. ECB President Christine Lagarde said services and private consumption remain the primary supports for expansion, but noted the conflict is disrupting commodity markets, denting …
A sudden rise in oil prices tied to an intensifying U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has further reduced the prospect of an interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year. The move in energy markets has pushed gasoline costs higher, prompted Fed officials to lift inflation projections, and diminished near-term odds of monetary easing, complicating th…
The European Central Bank left its main interest rate at 2% on Thursday and flagged that the war in Iran is weighing on the outlook for growth and inflation across the euro zone. Short-dated sovereign yields moved sharply higher, the euro strengthened modestly against the dollar, and European equities fell amid renewed selling linked to the Middle …
The European Central Bank raised its baseline inflation forecasts on higher energy costs and signalled additional downside risk to growth if a prolonged conflict in the Middle East disrupts oil and gas supplies. The ECB now projects 2026 inflation at 2.6% and 2027 inflation at 2.0%, both above previous December estimates, and will publish alternati…
The European Central Bank left its policy rates unchanged on Thursday, maintaining the deposit facility at 2.0%, main refinancing at 2.15% and marginal lending at 2.4%. In its statement, the ECB flagged that a joint U.S.-Israeli assault on Iran has made the outlook "significantly more uncertain," highlighting higher energy prices - notably natural …
The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged on March 19, citing close monitoring of growth and inflation risks arising from a recent spike in energy prices after the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran began on February 28. The bank said it stands ready to adjust its tools if the situation threatens to lift inflation persistently above its 2% targ…
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said meetings between President Trump’s Federal Reserve chair nominee Kevin Warsh and U.S. senators have been productive, but he would not address whether a federal probe involving the current Fed chair will be discontinued. Warsh’s path to confirmation remains uncertain after a top Republican senator pledged to blo…
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously to keep Bank Rate at 3.75%, citing elevated inflation risks stemming from the war in the Middle East. BoE staff project inflation could rise to as much as 3.5% over the next two calendar quarters, and committee members expressed differing views on whether future hikes may be required…
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously to keep interest rates unchanged amid uncertainty over inflationary pressures stemming from the Middle East conflict. Markets reacted by pricing in a higher probability of BoE tightening later this year, pushing up short-dated gilt yields and supporting sterling.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox Business Network that Washington is not targeting Iran's energy infrastructure amid tensions with Iran and Israel, and that the administration may lift sanctions on Iranian oil currently on water in the coming days. He also said the U.S. has allowed Iranian oil to keep flowing from the Gulf, flagged ab…
Chinese authorities have arrested seven people and taken compulsory measures against 12 more in a campaign focused on chemicals used to make fentanyl, state media reported. The operation in Hubei province produced 22 criminal cases and was launched in December following a public security ministry order. The move responds to longstanding U.S. pressu…
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has declared he will withhold support for a €90 billion EU aid package for Ukraine until oil deliveries through the Druzhba pipeline are re-established. Backed by Slovakia, Hungary has vetoed release of loans Kyiv needs in the coming months and frames the dispute as an existential issue tied to the pipeline dam…
Serbia has extended a nationwide suspension on exports of crude oil, diesel and gasoline until April 2, the Energy Minister said on Thursday. The measure, aimed at shielding the domestic market from shortages and rising pump prices linked to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, applies to all modes of transport. The government also released 40,000 tonnes …
Swiss watch shipments rose in February, with value exports reaching 2.2 billion Swiss francs, a 9.2% increase compared with February 2025. Growth was concentrated in the United States, Japan and France, while the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry says impacts from the Iran war have not yet appeared in trade flows.
London equities fell sharply as renewed conflict in the Middle East pushed investors toward risk-off positions. The FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 both posted sizable declines while energy stocks reached record highs after attacks on regional energy infrastructure. Market participants awaited the Bank of England's policy decision, expected to pause on a pre…
Global market expectations have shifted toward a protracted Iran conflict, with investors now anticipating months rather than weeks of sustained tensions, according to Vincent Mortier, Chief Investment Officer at Amundi SA. The change in outlook coincided with sharp price moves in oil and gas on Thursday after attacks in the Persian Gulf raised con…
The Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) held its policy rate at 2.00%, with all monetary policy committee members voting to maintain the current setting. Officials raised the 2026 inflation forecast to 1.8% but indicated inflation is unlikely to force a policy response, citing government measures to curb the domestic impact of rising glo…
The United Arab Emirates has reiterated its pledge to a $1.4 trillion investment framework with the United States, with the UAE ambassador to Washington assuring companies that funding deployment and acceleration plans will proceed despite recent attacks linked to the wider Iran conflict. The ambassador highlighted hefty sovereign reserves, extensi…
U.S. bank regulators are scheduled to publish a softened draft of long-delayed capital rules on Thursday. The Federal Reserve, the FDIC and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency plan to begin a formal comment process on revisions to the Basel Endgame and propose adjustments to the GSIB surcharge, changes that analysts say could modestly red…
