Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
7,188 total articles
China's central bank said Tuesday it will keep monetary policy appropriately loose while watching external developments. The People’s Bank of China described the economy as broadly stable but noted pressures from strong supply, weak demand and external shocks. It promised moderately loose policy with greater counter-cyclical adjustment, ample liqui…
Inflation-driven yield increases tied to higher energy prices have already pushed Treasury yields up. Market attention is turning to the fiscal cost of a protracted conflict - including defense supplemental requests, potential tariff refunds and possible stimulus - which could widen deficits and further unsettle bond markets that have been weak thi…
U.S. banks have raised the interest charged on some credit facilities used by private credit funds, driven by growing uncertainty over valuations of loans held in those portfolios. The increase in borrowing costs - particularly for back-leverage facilities used by business development companies (BDCs) and other private credit firms - tightens margi…
Analysts at Cornwall Insight forecast an approximate 18% increase in Britain’s domestic energy price cap in July, lifting the cap to 1,929 pounds per year for a typical household, driven by higher international gas prices after shipping disruptions and a stop to Qatari LNG exports. The estimate is slightly below a prior 20% projection. Officials ha…
Global air passenger traffic rose 6.1% in February 2026 versus February 2025, outpacing capacity expansion and pushing the load factor to a February record of 81.4%, the International Air Transport Association reported. International and domestic markets both expanded, while rising fuel costs linked to the war in the Middle East and adjustments to …
Inflation across the 21-country euro area rose to 2.5% in March from 1.9% the previous month, pushed higher by a jump in energy costs. Underlying inflation excluding food and energy edged down to 2.3%, but the rapid increase in oil and gas has prompted debate at the European Central Bank over whether to tighten policy to prevent second-round effect…
The European Central Bank published a model that transforms infrequent survey responses into monthly inflation expectation series for horizons up to ten years, stretching back to 1999. The analysis finds professional forecasters initially underestimated the magnitude and persistence of the 2021-22 inflation spike, only revising their 12-month outlo…
The European Central Bank outlined modeling work intended to generate a more continuous picture of inflation expectations, addressing limitations in survey frequency and market-based measures. The models interpolate sparse survey forecasts into a monthly curve and separately strip risk premia from market signals to produce a 'clean' expectations se…
Ye Win Oo, a 60-year-old general who led the squad that detained Aung San Suu Kyi during the February 1, 2021 coup, was named commander-in-chief of Myanmar's military on Monday. His promotion marks the first time a former head of military intelligence has risen to the top post. Analysts, diplomats and a defector point to his loyalty and proximity t…
U.S. stock futures rose as the first quarter neared its close, supported by reports that President Trump is weighing an end to the Iran military campaign without reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices remained historically high after a Kuwaiti tanker near Dubai caught fire following an alleged Iranian attack. Investors awaited U.S. JOLTS job op…
South Korean equities suffered heavy losses as the KOSPI plunged 4.3% on Tuesday, bringing its fall since late February to 19.9%. The won weakened about 1% to trade below 1,500 against the dollar. Large foreign sell-offs and a rapid unwind of positions, amid rising energy prices and reduced risk appetite tied to the Middle East war, underpinned the…
Germany's seasonally adjusted unemployment count remained unchanged in March at 2.977 million, with the jobless rate sticking at 6.3%. Labour office chief Andrea Nahles said the usual spring improvement in employment has begun but without strong momentum. Job vacancies totalled 638,000, down 5,000 year-on-year. Broader economic strains including co…
A consortium of Germany's leading economic research institutes has reduced its growth projection for 2026 to 0.6%, down from a 1.3% estimate issued in September, and trimmed 2027 expectations to 0.9% from 1.4%. The institutes attribute the downgrade to rising energy costs tied to the Iran war, which they say are driving higher inflation. The group …
Global markets edged up on Tuesday after a report that the U.S. may halt direct military operations against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. Futures rallied in Asia and Europe, while oil retreated from intraday gains. Investors remain cautious: the waterway has been effectively shut since February 28 and Brent is set for a …
Japanese officials on Tuesday described the latest slide in the yen as speculative for the first time since the Middle East war began, signaling readiness to act as the currency neared the 160-per-dollar threshold. The slump has combined with a spike in oil prices after the Iran conflict and rising import costs to intensify inflationary pressure an…
A People’s Bank of China monetary policy committee member said imported inflation linked to the Middle East conflict could squeeze corporate profits and complicate policymakers' efforts to simultaneously contain price pressures and support growth. Consumer inflation is still modest but the eventual impact depends on the duration and severity of the…
On March 30, California Governor Gavin Newsom issued an executive order obliging companies that pursue state contracts to adopt measures guarding against AI misuse, including producing illegal content, introducing harmful bias, or violating civil rights. The order mandates watermarking of AI-generated images and video per state guidance, directs st…
Bank Negara Malaysia has modestly lifted its economic growth projection for 2026 to a range of 4%-5%, up from 4%-4.5%, citing resilient domestic demand, a solid financial sector and external buffers. The central bank warned that higher oil prices and ongoing trade disruptions tied to the Middle East conflict and U.S. tariff actions pose risks to gr…
Oil prices were poised for unprecedented monthly gains as the conflict between the U.S., Israel and Iran intensified, triggering investor concern about higher inflation and slower growth. Asian stock indexes headed for steep monthly declines, bonds endured their largest losses in months amid renewed expectations for tighter policy, and the dollar s…
Shin Hyun-song, nominated to lead the Bank of Korea, told reporters on Tuesday that the central bank should adopt a "flexible" approach to monetary policy to address heightened risks stemming from the Iran war. He said the won's current level was "not concerning," and that liquidity conditions were healthy. Shin identified the Middle East crisis as…
Minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s March board meeting reveal that the board viewed policy as needing to be restrictive when it voted to raise rates earlier in the month, but members said the future path for interest rates is uncertain amid the conflict in the Middle East. The decision to lift the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.1% was …
Tokyo's core consumer prices, excluding fresh food, increased 1.7% in March from a year earlier, marking a second consecutive month below the Bank of Japan's 2% target. A narrower CPI that also strips out fuel rose 2.3% in March. Fuel subsidies and a weak yen are cited as opposing forces shaping the readings, while analysts expect higher oil-driven…
British retailers raised shop prices slightly faster in March, with annual shop price inflation moving to 1.2% from 1.1% in February. The British Retail Consortium warned that higher costs linked to the conflict in the Middle East are beginning to pass into supply chains and could push inflation higher, while food price behaviour remains a key conc…
Australia is on track for one of its largest post-pandemic quarters for bond issuance as high sovereign yields and international investor interest draw a wave of borrowers into the Aussie-dollar market. More than A$92 billion of investment-grade debt has been sold in local currency so far in 2026, placing the market on course to surpass last year’s…
The Reserve Bank of Australia has confirmed it will eliminate consumer-facing surcharges on designated eftpos, Mastercard and Visa networks from October 1 and will cap interchange fees paid by merchants in staged reductions. The combined measures are estimated to deliver roughly A$2.5 billion in annual savings, split between consumers and businesse…
