A memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran is in place for now, creating a temporary easing in oil markets and risk sentiment. Yet the durability of that understanding will be tested in the coming days as investors weigh economic data releases, corporate results and political contests that could reshape investor confidence.
Below are the main developments that will shape financial markets over the next week.
1 - A fragile opening for shipping and oil
U.S. President Donald Trump and Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian signed a memorandum of understanding intended to end their conflict, with Mr. Trump signing at France’s Palace of Versailles. In the immediate aftermath, tankers that had been obscuring their positions resumed broadcasting as they transited the Strait of Hormuz, a move that followed weeks of vessels attempting to hide locations. Oil prices fell below $80 per barrel as markets reacted to the reduced immediate threat to the waterway. Global equity and bond markets rallied on the news.
Despite the short-term relief, market participants remain focused on whether the agreement will hold and whether the shipping lane will remain open. Lebanon is cited as a potential source of renewed instability, with Israeli airstrikes continuing there. Negotiations toward a comprehensive U.S.-Iran accord remain uncertain: a planned session in Geneva on Friday was called off, and investors are poised to move on headlines that signal either progress or setbacks. Adding to the near-term data picture, June flash activity readings, due on Tuesday, will give markets a window into business conditions before the memorandum was announced.
2 - Inflation data and Fed projections in focus
Beyond geopolitics, U.S. inflation metrics will command significant attention. The personal consumption expenditures price index is scheduled for release on June 25. This print follows Federal Reserve projections that core PCE will finish the year at 3.3 percent, which remains notably above the Fed’s 2 percent objective. Investors pushed up rate-hike expectations after the Fed’s recent policy meeting, although some market participants argue that lower oil prices could lessen the case for additional policy tightening.
Corporate news will also feed market narratives. Micron Technology is due to report quarterly results on June 24, drawing focus to semiconductor demand and the heated chip trade. FedEx, a global delivery group often viewed as a macro indicator for commerce, reports on June 23 and will be watched for signs about shipping volumes and overall economic activity.
3 - Australia’s price and jobs data could shift the RBA outlook
In Australia, a set of inflation and labour releases could influence the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy trajectory. The RBA held its cash rate at 4.35 percent on Tuesday after three hikes earlier this year, keeping the cash rate at a level that is the highest among developed markets. The central bank warned that another increase might be necessary to bring prices under control. Data from late May indicated slowing inflation, and the next consumer price index print will arrive on Wednesday, followed by labour figures the next day.
May’s unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.5 percent, a 4-1/2-year high, a pattern of softer data that informed the RBA’s decision to pause. Interest rate swap markets currently price roughly a one-in-four chance of a rate rise in August and roughly a two-in-three probability of a move before year-end.
4 - Colombia’s presidential runoff and market preferences
Colombian voters head to the polls on Sunday for a presidential runoff between right-wing attorney Abelardo De La Espriella and leftist senator Ivan Cepeda. The new president will inherit strained public finances, subdued private investment and a fragmented Congress. Markets show a clear preference for De La Espriella, whose platform promotes a smaller state, lower corporate taxes and a resumption of oil exploration. A victory for De La Espriella would likely be seen as supportive for Colombian assets and business sentiment; market pricing already reflects at least some of that outcome. Nonetheless, risks remain if fiscal tightening is insufficient to stabilize public accounts.
By contrast, Cepeda has pledged to carry forward President Gustavo Petro’s social and economic approach, proposing higher taxes on wealthy individuals and large companies and limiting new oil and coal exploration. Ecopetrol, the national oil company, is likely to be especially sensitive to such policies. Economists expect a Cepeda victory could dampen market sentiment and investor confidence, with tighter fiscal constraints restricting potential government spending plans.
5 - London’s climate week amid competing priorities
London is hosting its largest-ever climate week, bringing together more than 75,000 participants across in excess of 1,000 events. Policymakers, financiers and corporate leaders will discuss how to mobilise private capital for the low-carbon transition and clarify the roles of governments and development banks. The conversations come as many developed economies reduce aid budgets while increasing defence spending. Energy security has risen on the agenda in light of the Iran situation and growing electricity demand from AI data centres. Those pressures, coupled with a forecast heatwave, are expected to galvanise activists. Delegates will also watch preparations for the COP31 climate talks in Turkey this November.
As markets digest the temporary calming of geopolitical risk, attention will swiftly return to the flow of economic data, corporate earnings and political outcomes that can reprice risk premia and influence central bank expectations. Investors will be monitoring headlines closely for signs that geopolitical tensions re-emerge or that economic indicators change the outlook for policy and asset allocation.