A survey published Friday by pollster Datafolha finds President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in hypothetical second-round matchups for this year’s presidential election.
In the Datafolha results, the leftist incumbent would receive 47% of the vote in a possible runoff against the right-wing challenger, with Flavio Bolsonaro at 43%.
This outcome represents a change from an earlier Datafolha snapshot dated May 16, which showed the two candidates tied in a second-round pairing.
Datafolha also reported results for an alternate runoff scenario: Lula would secure 48% of the vote against Michelle Bolsonaro, who would obtain 43% in that matchup, according to the poll.
On first-round voting intentions, the poll lists support levels as follows: Lula at 40%, Flavio Bolsonaro at 31%, Caiado at 4%, Zema at 3%, and Santos at 3%.
Datafolha’s noted shift in voting preferences follows media reports that linked Flavio Bolsonaro to a disgraced banker. The pollster’s findings suggest those reports appear to have affected Bolsonaro’s standing with voters.
Context and limitations
The Datafolha numbers provide a snapshot of voter preferences at the time the survey was conducted. The poll demonstrates movement in voter sentiment compared with the May 16 polling results, but it does not, by itself, indicate whether the change is durable or how underlying voter motivations may evolve ahead of the election.
The survey lists specific percentages for the two-candidate runoff scenarios and for multi-candidate first-round intentions, but it does not offer additional detail in this release about the methodology, margin of error, sample composition, or how respondents explained their choices. Those limitations mean the poll should be interpreted as a current measure of preferences rather than a definitive forecast.