Portugal's official statistics agency has reaffirmed the government's original fiscal outlook for 2026 despite stronger-than-expected results through the first six months of the year. The National Statistics Institute (INE) submitted its twice-yearly fiscal data to Eurostat on Wednesday and maintained the projection that the country's public finances will show a balanced budget for the full year.
The submission recorded a budget surplus of 0.5% of gross domestic product in the first half of the year. Even with that midyear surplus, INE kept the full-year forecast unchanged, signalling that its current projection is for neither a deficit nor a surplus at the close of 2026. That stance differs from remarks made by government officials last week indicating Portugal could post a small surplus for the year.
If the country does end 2026 with a surplus, it would continue a recent pattern of positive fiscal outcomes. A surplus this year would represent the fourth consecutive annual budget surplus for Portugal. Official figures show that in 2025 the country recorded a budget surplus of 0.7% of GDP.
Alongside the balance projection, INE provided an updated central government debt outlook. The institute forecasts the debt-to-GDP ratio will decline to 87.5% by the end of 2026, down from an estimated 89.2% in 2025. That forecast was included in the package of fiscal statistics transmitted to Eurostat on Wednesday.
The submission to Eurostat is part of INE's regular twice-yearly reporting cadence. The data confirmed the standing projection of a neutral fiscal balance for the year while also documenting the surplus recorded in the first half and the downward trajectory for the debt ratio through 2026.
Summary
- INE filed its semiannual fiscal data to Eurostat and maintained a 2026 balanced-budget forecast despite a 0.5% of GDP surplus recorded in H1.
- The government's recent comments suggesting a potential small surplus for 2026 differ from INE's unchanged projection of neither deficit nor surplus.
- INE expects the debt-to-GDP ratio to fall to 87.5% by end-2026, down from 89.2% in 2025.
Contextual details
The figures submitted on Wednesday show the official stance of the statistics agency: while early-year outturns were positive, the overall forecast for the year remains a balanced budget. The submission also documents the continuing decline in the debt-to-GDP ratio as projected by INE for 2026.