Colombia’s central bank is widely expected to resume increasing its benchmark interest rate at the policy meeting scheduled for June 30, according to a poll published Tuesday. The projected move would end the pause in the tightening cycle that followed the bank’s April decision to keep the rate unchanged.
The survey collected responses from 27 analysts and revealed a range of views on the scale of the increase. Thirteen respondents anticipate a 50 basis-point rise that would take the rate to 11.75%. Six analysts forecast a 75 basis-point increase to 12.00%, while four expect a 100 basis-point hike to 12.25%.
Smaller responses included one analyst who predicted a 25 basis-point increase to 11.50%, and three analysts who foresaw no change, leaving the policy rate at 11.25%.
At the bank’s previous meeting in April, the seven board members voted to maintain the policy rate at 11.25%. Market commentary at the time interpreted that decision as an attempt to avoid intensifying a public dispute between the central bank and President Gustavo Petro, who has publicly criticized recent increases in interest rates.
The presidential contest concluded with right-wing candidate Abelardo De La Espriella winning the race with 49.66% of the vote, edging left-wing contender Ivan Cepeda, who received 48.70%.
Inflation remains elevated: annual consumer inflation stood at 5.84% at the end of May, exceeding the central bank’s 3% objective. The poll also signaled expectations for higher interest rates over the remainder of this year and into the next.
Context and implications
The poll results reflect a clear split among economic forecasters on how aggressively the central bank will act to bring inflation back toward its stated goal. The April pause, following the board’s unanimous decision to hold at 11.25%, was viewed in the market as partly shaped by the heightened political debate around rate decisions.
Analysts participating in the poll now expect the bank to return to an upward trajectory in short-term interest rates, with the size of the move remaining uncertain.
Data limitations
The poll reports the views of 27 analysts and does not provide further breakdowns of methodology or individual respondent rationales. Where the article cites market interpretations of the April pause, it reports those assessments as market views rather than definitive statements from the bank.