Economists participating in Citi's latest survey have marginally reduced their forecasts for Mexico's headline inflation in 2026 and 2027, according to the results released today. The updated point estimates show a small move lower for both years while key policy and core inflation projections remained stable.
The survey reported a revised consumer price inflation forecast of 4.23% year-over-year for 2026, down from the 4.35% projection recorded in the prior survey conducted on June 5. For 2027, the headline inflation estimate was lowered to 3.80% from 3.90% in the earlier poll.
Core inflation estimates were unchanged in the new results. Economists left the core inflation projection for 2026 at 4.20%. The core figure for 2027 was reported at 3.85%, also unchanged from the previous survey.
On growth, the panel trimmed its outlook for Mexico's economy in 2026 to 1.10%, a modest reduction from the 1.20% forecast included in the June 5 survey. The GDP projection for 2027 held steady at 1.80%.
The survey respondents maintained an unchanged outlook for Mexico's overnight policy rate, continuing to project a rate of 6.50% for both 2026 and 2027. Citi noted that this projection has been stable in surveys dating back to April 7.
Forecasts for the peso also shifted slightly. For 2026, economists now expect an exchange rate of 17.92 pesos per U.S. dollar, an improvement versus the 18.00 projection from the June 5 survey. The 2027 peso forecast remained unchanged at 18.50 pesos per dollar.
Context and interpretation
The survey captures incremental revisions across headline inflation, growth, and the currency outlook, while leaving core inflation and the policy rate path unaltered. The adjustments reported are modest in magnitude but reflect the current consensus among the surveyed economists at Citi.
What the survey shows at a glance
- Headline inflation - 2026: 4.23% (previously 4.35%); 2027: 3.80% (previously 3.90%).
- Core inflation - 2026: 4.20% (unchanged); 2027: 3.85% (unchanged).
- GDP growth - 2026: 1.10% (previously 1.20%); 2027: 1.80% (unchanged).
- Overnight policy rate - 2026 & 2027: 6.50% (unchanged since April 7 surveys).
- Exchange rate - 2026: 17.92 pesos per dollar (previously 18.00); 2027: 18.50 (unchanged).
These figures represent the current consensus from the Citi survey respondents and should be interpreted as the surveyed expectations rather than realized outcomes.