BlackRock has moved energy security into its high-risk tier in its most recent geopolitical assessment, warning that the conflict involving Iran has revealed the global economy's heavy reliance on energy transits through the Strait of Hormuz and could alter national economic planning and investment strategies.
The firm said disruptions tied to the conflict amount to the most significant global energy crisis since the 1970s, displacing more than one billion barrels of crude and one-fifth of the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply. Those disruptions have contributed to higher energy prices and increased market volatility.
Governments have reacted with emergency interventions, including releases from strategic oil reserves and initiatives to broaden the diversity of energy supplies. BlackRock noted these steps as immediate responses to supply interruptions and price spikes.
Despite what it described as a fragile ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, BlackRock kept a high-risk rating for the wider Middle East conflict. The firm said that talks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz are advancing only slowly and that securing a comprehensive agreement encompassing Iran's nuclear programme remains difficult. As a result, BlackRock warned the threat of renewed escalation remains elevated.
In addition to energy-related risks, the outlook consolidated its previous cyber and terrorism categories into a single high-risk assessment. BlackRock pointed to rising state-backed cyber activity and increasingly capable artificial intelligence models as factors that could create both commercial and national security challenges.
Another high-priority concern is the accelerating technology decoupling between the U.S. and China. The firm expects artificial intelligence to move closer to the center of U.S. political debate ahead of the midterm elections, and it identified related topics likely to attract attention - including data centres, energy demand, labour disruption and AI regulation.
BlackRock ranked several other geopolitical issues at medium risk. These include global trade protectionism, U.S.-China strategic competition, the Russia-Ukraine war, transatlantic relations and tensions on the Korean Peninsula. The firm observed that global trade flows are being reshaped rather than reversed, even as tariff disputes and geopolitical fragmentation persist.
The updated outlook groups a set of interconnected threats - energy supply interruptions, evolving cyber and AI risks, and geopolitical competition over technology - that together pose implications for market volatility, short-term government responses and longer-term investment decisions. BlackRock's assessment underscores how shocks in one domain, such as disruptions in a key shipping chokepoint, can ripple across energy markets, national security planning and technology policy debates.
While the firm delineated high and medium risk categories across specific issues, it also signaled that several of these dynamics remain fluid: negotiations and ceasefires are fragile, talks on reopening key transit routes are slow, and technological developments such as AI are rapidly moving into political and regulatory arenas.
Impacted sectors noted in the outlook
- Energy and utilities - through disrupted crude and LNG flows and shifts in supply strategy.
- Technology and data infrastructure - via AI-related policy debate and data centre energy demand.
- Defense and national security - from heightened regional conflict risks and cyber threats.