Commodities July 15, 2026 09:30 PM

Oil rises for fourth session as US escalates strikes on Iran, raising Hormuz disruption concerns

Brent and WTI climb as Washington targets Iranian military sites tied to attacks on commercial shipping; inventories show mixed signals

By Derek Hwang
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The oil market extended gains for a fourth consecutive trading day as heightened U.S. military activity against Iran intensified fears of sustained interruptions to maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Benchmarks strengthened after fresh strikes on Iranian military targets and a U.S. report showing a modest draw in crude inventories, while agencies warn renewed hostilities cloud the supply outlook.

Oil rises for fourth session as US escalates strikes on Iran, raising Hormuz disruption concerns
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Key Points

  • Brent rose 0.7% to $85.52 per barrel and WTI increased 0.9% to $80.32 per barrel as of 21:18 ET (01:18 GMT), marking a fourth consecutive day of gains.
  • Markets are focused on the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries about one-fifth of global oil and LNG shipments, amid concerns of sustained disruptions.
  • U.S. strikes targeted Iranian military sites linked to attacks on commercial shipping; the IEA warned renewed hostilities may jeopardize expectations for a return to surplus in 2027.

Oil prices advanced for a fourth straight session on Thursday amid an escalation of U.S. military operations against Iranian forces, reinforcing concerns that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could face ongoing disruptions.

As of 21:18 ET (01:18 GMT), Brent futures for September delivery were trading up 0.7% at $85.52 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate crude front-month futures rose 0.9% to $80.32 per barrel. Both benchmarks were on track for their fourth day of gains following an early-week surge that pushed prices nearly 10% to one-month highs after the conflict with Iran flared again.

Market attention has remained focused on the security of the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint through which roughly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments normally transit. The possibility of prolonged interference with flows through the strait is a central driver of the recent price rally.

The latest price uptick followed a fresh round of U.S. strikes on Wednesday targeting Iranian military installations that Washington says were linked to attacks on commercial vessels. Officials described the operation as intended to degrade Iran’s ability to threaten maritime traffic in the Gulf.

Iranian officials responded by saying they were engaged in an "existential war" with the U.S., and warned that further hostilities could produce additional disruption to regional energy exports if the conflict continues.

The escalation has largely undone the cautious optimism that emerged after a temporary easing of tensions last month. That earlier improvement had supported expectations of more stable flows, but the renewed clashes have clouded that outlook.

Fundamentals also offered support to prices. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday that crude oil inventories declined by 1.7 million barrels in the week ended July 10, a move broadly in line with market expectations. Gasoline stockpiles fell by 1.5 million barrels amid firm peak summer driving demand, while distillate inventories unexpectedly increased by 4.6 million barrels.

In its July Oil Market Report, the International Energy Agency noted that although oil flows through the Strait had partially recovered in June, the renewed hostilities this month have clouded the outlook and could derail expectations for a return to surplus in 2027.


Context and market implications

The combination of heightened geopolitical risk around the Strait of Hormuz and inventory draws has tightened market sentiment, supporting crude prices. Participants remain attentive to any further military actions and subsequent Iranian responses that could affect shipping and regional exports.

Risks

  • Escalation of hostilities could further disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, affecting global oil and LNG flows - impact on energy and shipping sectors.
  • Continued conflict could undermine market expectations for a return to surplus, increasing price volatility in oil markets - impact on commodities markets and refiners.
  • Uncertain inventory trends, with crude and gasoline draws but an unexpected rise in distillates, add ambiguity to near-term supply-demand balances - impact on refining and fuel markets.

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