Gold drifted modestly downward on Thursday, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and renewed concerns that military clashes between the U.S. and Iran could sustain energy-driven inflation and keep interest rates elevated.
Spot gold fell 0.2% to $4,070.81 an ounce, while gold futures were down 0.1% at $4,079.47/oz by 22:46 ET (02:46 GMT). The metal has now recorded three consecutive sessions of declines after a fresh escalation in U.S.-Iran military activity sent oil prices higher, reviving fears about sticky inflation.
The dollar gained ground as markets priced in the risk that higher energy costs would prolong inflationary pressures. The dollar index remained within reach of 13-month highs hit in June, reflecting investor concerns that elevated oil prices could compel the Federal Reserve to maintain tighter policy for longer.
“Any rebound in energy prices will reinforce expectations that the Fed may keep interest rates higher for longer to combat stubbornly high inflation,” ANZ analysts said in a note.
Other precious metals moved in line with gold's pullback. Spot silver declined 0.5% to $58.0060/oz, while spot platinum edged up 0.5% to $1,594.0/oz.
The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s June meeting, released on Wednesday, did little to alleviate market uncertainty. They showed policymakers were largely split over whether additional rate increases are needed this year, a divide that left analysts and investors parsing the language for clues on the path of monetary policy.
Although the minutes stopped short of signaling an immediate consensus for more hikes, they documented growing central bank concern about persistent inflation - a trend that could open the door to further rate action later in the year if price pressures remain elevated.
U.S. inflation has risen sharply since the onset of the U.S.-Iran war in late-February, with overall price growth still well above the Fed’s 2% annual target. That dynamic has contributed to the cautious tone among policymakers and to market expectations for higher-for-longer rates.
Policy remarks have underscored the priority of returning inflation to target. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh had reiterated the bank’s commitment to meeting the target during a recent address.
Geopolitical developments this week have amplified these inflation concerns. The U.S. launched a series of attacks on Iran, with President Donald Trump saying a ceasefire with the country was over. The latest hostilities were triggered by Iranian attacks on vessels attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz, a flashpoint for global energy shipments.
Market participants are watching how energy prices, central bank messaging and geopolitical risks interact. For now, those factors are keeping bullion under pressure as investors weigh the implications for interest rates and inflation.