Commodities June 24, 2026 03:53 PM

Cocoa Futures Climb to Five-Month High as El Nino Concerns Mount

Markets react to supply uncertainty after Ivory Coast pauses export contract sales; Arabica edges higher amid delayed Brazilian harvests

By Hana Yamamoto
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London cocoa futures surged to their highest level in five months amid trader concerns that El Nino could dent West African output for the 2026/27 season. The Ivory Coast has temporarily halted sales of export contracts for its main 2026/27 crop, and New York cocoa also reached five-month highs. Arabica coffee advanced as Brazil’s Cooxupe reported slower-than-normal harvesting due to rain.

Cocoa Futures Climb to Five-Month High as El Nino Concerns Mount
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Key Points

  • London cocoa futures jumped to a five-month high on El Nino-related supply concerns, closing at £3,753 per metric ton (LCCc2). Impacted sectors: commodities markets, food and beverage, consumer staples.
  • The Ivory Coast has temporarily paused sales of export contracts for its 2026/27 main cocoa crop while awaiting clearer production estimates, reducing near-term supply visibility. Impacted sectors: agricultural exports, cocoa processing, chocolate manufacturers.
  • Arabica coffee advanced as Cooxupe reported a slower harvest in Brazil, with 20.1% of the 2026 crop harvested by June 19 versus 24.3% a year earlier, owing to rain-related delays. Impacted sectors: coffee supply chains, roasters, consumer staples.

London cocoa futures rose sharply on Wednesday, climbing to a five-month peak as market participants priced in the risk that El Nino weather patterns could curb output in West Africa for the 2026/27 season. The move was accompanied by gains in New York cocoa and a modest rise in Arabica coffee, where slower fieldwork in Brazil was cited as a factor.

On the London exchange, cocoa contract LCCc2 closed up £252, or 7.2%, at £3,753 per metric ton. Earlier in the session the contract reached £3,793, marking its highest level in five months.

Traders have been watching developments in the Ivory Coast closely. Two sources at the country’s cocoa regulator said earlier this week that the West African nation, the world’s largest cocoa producer, has temporarily stopped selling export contracts for its 2026/27 main crop while it waits for a clearer estimate of production.

Across the Atlantic, New York cocoa CCc2 rose 7.1% to $4,973 per ton, after touching an intraday five-month high of $5,040.

Arabica coffee KCc2 also moved higher, settling up 1.25 cents, or 0.5%, at $2.772 per pound. The contract earlier touched $2.8480 per pound, putting it near a six-week high.

On the supply side for coffee, Cooxupe, Brazil’s largest coffee cooperative, reported that its farmers had harvested 20.1% of their 2026 crop as of June 19. That compares with 24.3% harvested at the same point last year, with the cooperative attributing the slower pace to rain that delayed fieldwork.

The price moves in both cocoa and coffee reflect a combination of weather-related concern and producer-level actions that have reduced near-term visibility on supply. The temporary suspension of contract sales in Ivory Coast and the slower harvest progress reported by Cooxupe were central to this week’s market reaction.

Below is a concise recap of the market developments and the supply signals that underpinned the recent price moves.

  • London cocoa: LCCc2 closed at £3,753 per metric ton, up £252 (7.2%).
  • New York cocoa: CCc2 up 7.1% to $4,973 per ton, earlier touching $5,040.
  • Arabica coffee: KCc2 settled at $2.772 per pound, up 1.25 cents; earlier reached $2.8480.
  • Producer updates: Ivory Coast temporarily halted export contract sales for its 2026/27 main cocoa crop; Cooxupe reported 20.1% of the 2026 coffee crop harvested by June 19, versus 24.3% a year earlier due to rain delays.

Risks

  • El Nino-related weather uncertainty could reduce West African cocoa output for the 2026/27 season, creating supply risk for cocoa-dependent industries. Affected sectors: commodities, chocolate manufacturers, consumer staples.
  • The temporary halt by the Ivory Coast on selling export contracts for its 2026/27 main crop introduces uncertainty around near-term cocoa availability and pricing. Affected sectors: cocoa trading, confectionery producers, agricultural exporters.
  • Rain-delayed harvesting in Brazil, as reported by Cooxupe, has slowed coffee fieldwork and could prolong supply-side uncertainty for Arabica coffee. Affected sectors: coffee roasters, retailers, beverage companies.

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