The U.S. Department of the Treasury on Monday announced an updated estimate for its net marketable borrowing in the second quarter of fiscal 2026. The agency now expects to borrow $189 billion in privately-held net marketable debt over the April-June 2026 quarter and to finish June with a cash balance of $900 billion.
That borrowing projection represents an increase of $79 billion relative to the department's February estimate. Treasury attributed the bulk of the upward revision to lower projected net cash flows. A higher-than-assumed starting cash balance at the beginning of the quarter partially offset the need for additional borrowing. Excluding the effect of the larger starting cash balance, the April-June borrowing estimate is $122 billion above what was projected in February.
Looking further ahead, Treasury set its borrowing expectation for the July-September 2026 quarter at $671 billion in privately-held net marketable debt. The department is targeting an end-of-September cash balance of $950 billion.
For the January-March 2026 quarter, Treasury reported it borrowed $577 billion in privately-held net marketable debt and closed the period with $893 billion in cash on hand. In February, the department had estimated January-March borrowing at $574 billion and projected an end-of-March cash balance of $850 billion.
The $3 billion difference between actual and previously projected privately-held net marketable borrowing for January-March 2026 was driven primarily by the higher-than-assumed end-of-quarter cash balance, partially offset by stronger net cash flows. Treasury noted that if the higher-than-assumed end-of-quarter cash balance is excluded, actual borrowing for the quarter was $40 billion lower than the February projection.
Treasury also said that additional details tied to the department's Quarterly Refunding will be published at 8:30 a.m. on Wednesday. Those details are expected to provide further specifics on financing plans for upcoming quarters.
What this means
- Treasury has raised its near-term borrowing plan for April-June 2026 to $189 billion while maintaining a substantial cash buffer of $900 billion.
- The revision stems mainly from lower expected net cash inflows, with the higher opening cash balance tempering the increase.
- Borrowing expectations for July-September 2026 are set significantly higher at $671 billion, with a targeted cash balance of $950 billion at quarter end.