Options contracts tied to Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE) indicate an expected stock-price swing of 5.2% around the companys upcoming earnings announcement scheduled for May 21 before the market opens, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Market-implied moves, derived from option pricing, provide one measure of how much traders expect a stock to fluctuate on earnings days. Deere, the agricultural equipment manufacturer, has a record in recent quarters of actual post-earnings moves that frequently outpaced those implied expectations.
Recent earnings moves compared to options-implied expectations
- On February 19, Deere shares rose 8.0% while the options-implied move was 5.4%.
- On November 26, 2025, the stock fell 0.8% which was below the implied move of 5.8%.
- On August 14, 2025, shares dropped 6.0% compared with an implied move of 4.6%.
- The largest swing in the span cited occurred on November 21, 2024, when the stock jumped 12.3% against an implied move of 4.5%.
- On May 15, 2025, shares climbed 9.3%, surpassing an implied move of 5.3%.
Overall, the stock exceeded the options-implied move in five of the past eight earnings announcements. There have been three instances when the actual price change was smaller than the options-implied number. For example, on February 13, 2025, shares fell 0.3% versus an implied move of 4.9%, and on May 16, 2024, the stock dropped 2.7% versus an implied move of 4.3%.
These historical comparisons illustrate that while options-derived estimates offer a snapshot of market expectations, actual post-earnings price behavior can diverge materially in either direction. Investors and market participants looking at Deere ahead of the May 21 release can expect the options market to price in a 5.2% swing, with prior results showing both larger and smaller outcomes are possible.
Note: The percentages and dates above are drawn from options data and past stock moves reported for Deere & Co. around prior earnings announcements.