Evercore has reiterated Outperform ratings on Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Arm Holdings (Arm) and Intel following publication of a first-quarter 2026 market share report that recorded further movement in the server CPU market.
The report showed AMD increased its server CPU unit share by 220 basis points quarter over quarter, while Arm rose by 140 basis points. Over the same period Intel’s unit share declined from 59% to 55%.
Separately, Arm provided feedback indicating that the Mercury data set undercounts Arm server CPU units by roughly 30%. Incorporating that adjustment, Evercore said the total server CPU unit addressable market in 2025 was 30.4 million units, partitioned as Intel at 59%, AMD at 24% and Arm at 17%.
Evercore reiterated its "CPU renaissance" thesis, which forecasts that the server CPU total addressable market could expand to between 75 million and 110 million annual unit shipments. Under this scenario the firm expects share to normalize toward approximately one-third each for Intel, AMD and Arm.
The projected normalization implies differentiated five-year unit compound annual growth rates across the three vendors: a low double-digit percentage CAGR for Intel, 34% for AMD and 43% for Arm. Evercore characterized the first-quarter 2026 market share data as positive for AMD and Arm while noting acute server CPU constraints for Intel.
Reflecting these views, the investment bank maintained Outperform ratings on all three semiconductor companies.
Context and implications
Evercore’s analysis ties a larger total addressable market to significant upside in unit volumes for AMD and Arm under its normalization scenario, while the firm warns that Intel faces capacity constraints in the near term. The report also highlights the potential for third-party data sources to materially understate Arm’s unit shipments if the reported undercount is accurate.