Data compiled by Bernstein show that Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix recorded HBM export growth in the first quarter of 2026 that exceeded expectations. Overall, March HBM shipments climbed further from already strong February levels, helping first-quarter exports finish 15% higher quarter-over-quarter despite weak performance in January.
Samsung's HBM exports in March stayed broadly in line with Bernstein's estimates. Exports originating from South Chungcheong Province - the packaging hub for Samsung's HBM - rose month-over-month on a seasonal basis, contributing to a 19% quarter-over-quarter increase in Samsung's first-quarter HBM export volume. Bernstein's regression analysis indicates that Samsung's HBM-related revenue climbed about 17% quarter-over-quarter, which matches the firm's forecast.
SK Hynix posted even stronger export results than anticipated. Shipments from North Chungcheong and Icheon increased sharply in March, rising 42% quarter-over-quarter, and bringing SK Hynix's first-quarter HBM export volume to a 13% gain quarter-over-quarter. According to Bernstein's regression model, SK Hynix's HBM revenue grew roughly 16% quarter-over-quarter in Q1, a result that outperformed a decline the firm had previously modeled.
The data also show that HBM prices have so far been insulated from the volatility seen in conventional memory markets. While conventional memory prices experienced recent surges, measures of HBM pricing - represented by value per weight - have largely remained within the same band.
On average selling prices (ASPs) related to HBM4, Bernstein's data did not identify clear ASP increases for either Samsung or SK Hynix in March. The report notes divergent recent trends: Samsung's ASP path has been generally flat to slightly positive in recent months, whereas SK Hynix's ASP trend has been declining.
Looking forward, Bernstein projects robust HBM demand growth over the next two years and anticipates stronger-than-expected memory prices in the second quarter of 2026. The firm remains structurally constructive on Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron Technology, while it stays negative on Kioxia due to China competition and valuation concerns.
Key takeaways:
- Aggregated HBM export volumes rose 15% quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2026, helped by stronger March shipments.
- Samsung's Q1 HBM exports increased 19% quarter-over-quarter with estimated HBM revenue up about 17% q/q.
- SK Hynix's March exports jumped 42% q/q from North Chungcheong and Icheon, lifting Q1 exports 13% q/q and estimated HBM revenue about 16% q/q.
Contextual note: The findings are drawn from Bernstein's export-tracking and regression analysis and reflect the firm's projections and modeling for revenue and pricing trends.