Berenberg has reduced its recommendation on Anglo American Plc to Hold from Buy, warning that the company’s upcoming first-half results could fall slightly short of market expectations. The broker maintained a price target of 4,200 pence per share as it cited downside risk from a number of underperforming non-core assets and forecasts that sit below consensus.
At the time of Berenberg's note, Anglo American shares were trading at roughly 1.84 times net asset value and at about 9.8 times the broker's forecast for 2026 EBITDA. The firm said it is taking profits for now and adopting a more cautious stance given the potential for a near-term H1 shortfall.
Key corporate dates remain in place: Anglo American will publish second-quarter production figures on July 23 and unveil its first-half results on July 30. Those releases will provide the first formal confirmation of the performance that has prompted Berenberg's downgrade.
Berenberg's specific first-half projections place group revenue at $9.8 billion, slightly below a consensus figure of $9.9 billion. The broker expects underlying EBITDA of $3.7 billion versus a consensus of $3.9 billion. Adjusted continuing earnings per share are forecast at $0.63, compared with a consensus $0.78, and a first-half dividend of $0.25 per share, against a consensus $0.31. Net debt is projected to be $9.3 billion at the end of the period.
The broker has also outlined projections for the following years. For 2026, Berenberg forecasts Anglo American sales of $20.38 billion - a slight 0.1% increase from its prior estimate - with EBITDA at $8.09 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $1.60, a 0.5% uptick. For 2027, the broker expects sales of $33.83 billion, up 1.6%, and EBITDA of $14.90 billion.
Berenberg noted Anglo American's reported 2025 performance as a baseline, recording revenue of $18.55 billion and EBITDA of $6.20 billion, alongside a net loss per share of $1.13.
Separately, the planned merger of equals with Teck Resources remains on track to complete in the window between September 2026 and March 2027, with Chinese antitrust authorization identified as the final regulatory hurdle. Berenberg said it does not expect that approval to present a material problem.
Looking through to the post-merger asset mix and after anticipated disposals, Berenberg estimates copper will make up approximately 74% of group EBITDA in 2027, with iron ore contributing about 15% and zinc roughly 8%.
The broker's move to Hold follows an earlier trajectory in which its stance shifted from Sell - based on doubts about the ease of simplifying Anglo American's business - to a more positive posture as the Teck combination progressed. The current downgrade reflects a recalibration of near-term expectations rather than a change to the longer-term price target.
Investors will monitor the July production and H1 results closely for confirmation of the revenue, EBITDA and earnings-per-share trajectories that underpin Berenberg's more cautious short-term positioning. Any deviation from the broker's numbers would likely influence market reaction around the deadline for results and in the lead-up to the merger completion window.