Stock Markets April 28, 2026 08:31 AM

Barclays: U.S. Cigarette Volumes Slip While Nicotine Pouches and Some Vapes Gain Ground

Four-week data to April 18 shows declines in cigarette and e-cigarette sales, offset in part by growth in nicotine pouches and select vape brands

By Maya Rios MO BTI
Barclays: U.S. Cigarette Volumes Slip While Nicotine Pouches and Some Vapes Gain Ground
MO BTI

Barclays' weekly U.S. tobacco snapshot for the four weeks ending April 18 reports weakening cigarette volumes alongside a mixed performance across next-gen nicotine products. Cigarette shipments fell 4.3% per MSA and 5.5% per Nielsen year-over-year, while nicotine pouches and specific e-cigarette brands recorded value and volume gains.

Key Points

  • Cigarette volumes contracted in the four weeks to April 18, down 4.3% per MSA and 5.5% per Nielsen year-over-year; year-to-date volumes are down 5.1%, milder than Barclays' earlier 7.3% estimate.
  • Nicotine pouches recorded strong growth with 22% value and 22% volume gains year-over-year; ZYN reached roughly $260 million in retail sales and Velo held a 25% volume share.
  • E-cigarette category declined 17% year-over-year overall, but brand dynamics were mixed: Vuse grew 10% and held 41.3% value share while JUUL had 19.7% and Altria's e-cigarette sales plunged 61%.

Barclays released its weekly overview of U.S. tobacco category performance for the four weeks ended April 18, documenting a continued contraction in cigarette volumes and divergent trends among alternative nicotine products.

On the cigarette front, the report shows a 4.3% year-over-year decline based on MSA measures and a 5.5% decline according to Nielsen data. Year-to-date cigarette volumes were down 5.1%, which contrasted with Barclays' own prior estimate of a 7.3% decrease. The two-year volume stack, per MSA data, stands at negative 13%.

Within the fast-growing nicotine pouch segment, ZYN retail sales were roughly $260 million for the four-week period, an increase of 4% year-over-year. ZYN's pricing fell 1% year-over-year, while competing pouch brands showed stronger price gains - on! pricing rose 17%, Velo pricing climbed 20%, and Rogue recorded a 7% increase. Volume for ZYN was steady month-over-month and was up 5% year-over-year.

Overall, nicotine pouches exhibited 22% value growth and 22% volume growth year-over-year. Sequentially, Velo volumes increased 5.7% and the brand held a 25% volume share of the pouch category. Imperial Brands' nicotine pouch brand Zone achieved a 3% volume share and a 2% value share during the period.

The e-cigarette space showed mixed results by brand and format. Vuse posted a 10% year-over-year increase in sales and commanded a 41.3% value market share, versus JUUL at 19.7% value share. Altria's e-cigarette sales fell sharply, down 61% year-over-year, representing a 1.7% value share for the company. Overall, e-cigarette sales declined 17% year-over-year.

Format-level movement within e-cigarettes varied: closed-tank e-cigarette refill sales fell 5.8% year-over-year, while disposable e-cigarette sales dropped 34.7% year-over-year. Barclays noted that the e-cigarette data set does not capture all channels.

Turning back to combustible cigarettes by company, Nielsen data for the four weeks ending April 18 showed Altria volumes declined 4.7% year-over-year, British American Tobacco fell 9.3%, and Imperial Brands decreased 9%. Barclays observed that Altria continues to gain share this year despite the overall volume declines.

In other combustible categories, Backwoods sales fell 8% year-over-year in the last four weeks, and the broader cigar industry saw a 2% year-over-year decline.


Contextual note: All figures above are drawn from Barclays' weekly U.S. tobacco market data covering the four-week period ending April 18 and from the cited MSA and Nielsen measures included in that release.

Risks

  • Ongoing declines in cigarette and e-cigarette volumes could pressure revenue for combustible and vape businesses, affecting tobacco manufacturers and retailers.
  • The e-cigarette data set does not capture all channels, introducing uncertainty around the full scale of declines in closed-tank and disposable segments and complicating market sizing and forecasting.
  • Shifts in pricing across pouch brands and diverging brand performances increase volatility in category margins and market share outcomes for producers in pouches and vaping sectors.

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