Stock Markets May 15, 2026 07:49 AM

Ackman Builds Stake in Microsoft at 21x Forward Earnings, Citing Volatility as Buying Opportunity

Pershing Square bought into MSFT after fiscal Q2 results, highlighting M365 and Azure as profit engines and OpenAI stake as undervalued

By Nina Shah MSFT

Pershing Square disclosed a new position in Microsoft, with Bill Ackman saying recent market turbulence created a chance to buy a dominant enterprise franchise at an attractive valuation. The fund began purchases in February 2026 after Microsoft reported fiscal second-quarter results, when the stock traded at about 21 times forward earnings. Ackman emphasized that M365 and Azure account for roughly 70% of Microsoft’s profits, pointed to high M365 retention and 450 million daily users, and argued the company’s roughly 27% economic interest in OpenAI is not fully reflected in the market capitalization.

Ackman Builds Stake in Microsoft at 21x Forward Earnings, Citing Volatility as Buying Opportunity
MSFT

Key Points

  • Pershing Square disclosed a new position in Microsoft after initiating purchases in February 2026 when the stock traded at about 21 times forward earnings - impacts technology and equity markets.
  • Ackman emphasized that M365 and Azure produce roughly 70% of Microsoft’s profits, with M365 serving 450 million daily users - relevant to enterprise software and cloud sectors.
  • Pershing Square argues the market understates Microsoft’s roughly 27% economic interest in OpenAI, which Ackman valued at about $200 billion based on OpenAI’s latest funding round - relevant to AI and investment valuation.

Pershing Square announced on Friday that it had added Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT) to its portfolio, with founder Bill Ackman describing recent swings in the market as an opportunity to buy into what he called a dominant long-term franchise at an appealing price.

According to the disclosure, Pershing Square started acquiring Microsoft shares in February 2026 after the company released fiscal second-quarter results. At the time the initial purchases were made, Microsoft was trading at about 21 times forward earnings, a multiple Ackman described as below historical norms for the company.

Ackman framed the move as a reaction to short-term overreactions by investors to transitory headwinds, creating an entry point for longer-term capital. He drew a parallel to past investments in other large technology platforms during periods of market uncertainty.

Profit drivers and competitive positioning

The investor emphasized Microsoft’s enterprise distribution as a key advantage, noting that M365 and Azure together generate roughly 70% of the company’s profits. He highlighted the retention dynamics for those platforms and linked that stickiness to Microsoft’s security and compliance capabilities.

On M365 specifically, Ackman pointed to the platform’s scale, noting it serves 450 million daily users and functions as a central productivity platform for enterprises. For Azure, he cited continued tailwinds from cloud migration and growing contributions from AI workloads.

Addressing concerns about competitive pressure from newer AI-focused labs, Ackman singled out Anthropic and its Claude Cowork platform as examples cited by some investors, but he argued that integrated platforms such as M365 are difficult to replace. He noted a pricing comparison in which M365’s average revenue per user is about $20, roughly half of the per-user revenue for standalone applications, which he said creates a barrier to customer migration.

OpenAI stake and strategic shifts

Ackman also discussed Microsoft’s relationship with OpenAI. He characterized Microsoft’s move to restructure its partnership with OpenAI not as a retreat but as a strategic pivot toward a more open, multi-model architecture, saying, "We view Microsoft’s recent decision to restructure its OpenAI partnership not as a concession but as part of a deliberate pivot toward a more open, multi-model architecture."

Pershing Square pointed out that the market appears not to fully price Microsoft’s approximately 27% economic interest in OpenAI. Using OpenAI’s most recent funding round as a reference, Ackman estimated that stake is worth roughly $200 billion.

Capital expenditure and monetization opportunities

Ackman characterized Microsoft’s planned $190 billion capital expenditure budget for 2026 as growth investment. He emphasized potential upside from a shift in pricing models - from per-seat licensing toward metered consumption - which could accelerate revenue as AI agents drive higher platform utilization.

In sum, Pershing Square’s filing lays out a thesis built on valuation, platform economics and the optionality from Microsoft’s OpenAI exposure and capex program. Ackman framed the purchase as taking advantage of volatility to acquire a sizable position in what he views as a long-term compounder.


Key context and data points included in the filing

  • Pershing Square began purchasing Microsoft shares in February 2026, after fiscal Q2 results.
  • Microsoft was trading at about 21 times forward earnings at the time of initial purchases.
  • M365 and Azure generate approximately 70% of Microsoft’s profits; M365 has 450 million daily users.
  • Ackman estimates Microsoft’s ~27% economic interest in OpenAI is worth roughly $200 billion based on OpenAI’s most recent funding round.
  • Microsoft’s capital expenditure plan for 2026 is $190 billion, described as growth investment.

Risks

  • Investor concerns about competition from AI labs such as Anthropic and its Claude Cowork platform could pressure market perception and valuation - affects cloud and AI sectors.
  • Short-term market volatility and temporary headwinds cited by Ackman may persist, introducing uncertainty around near-term returns - affects equity markets broadly.
  • The market’s current valuation may not fully reflect Microsoft’s stake in OpenAI; disagreement over that valuation introduces uncertainty about the company’s intrinsic worth - affects AI and investment valuation.

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