Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
2,053 total articles
A March 2-9 survey of economists finds the Bank of Japan will keep its policy rate at 0.75% on March 19 but that a majority expect a rise to 1.00% by the end of June. The prospect of higher crude prices and a softer yen - linked to recent Middle East conflict - has complicated the policy outlook, though many forecasters see only a gradual path of f…
Consumer prices in the United States are expected to have risen in February, driven in part by higher gasoline costs as markets priced in a worsening Middle East conflict and by the ongoing - but uneven - pass-through of recently implemented tariffs. Core inflation measures are projected to moderate, aided by declines in used car prices and softer …
Westpac economists now expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in March and again in May, taking the peak cash rate to about 4.35%. The bank's revised outlook reflects a recent surge in oil prices that could lift headline inflation temporarily, and RBA communications highlighting concerns about weak growth in…
Several leading economists and market indicators now expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise its cash rate by 25 basis points at next week’s meeting, driven by higher oil prices following conflict in the Middle East and a recent warning from an RBA deputy governor. Markets are pricing roughly a 75% chance of a rise to 4.1%, while Australia’s …
Global currency markets have largely paused as traders await clearer signals on the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. The dollar, which rose as oil prices jumped early in the conflict, has relinquished some gains amid hopes for a quick end, but analysts and market participants remain sceptical. Central bank interest rate outlooks and near-term inflation …
The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta is conducting a national search for a new president and is prioritizing candidates who demonstrate a commitment to the Fed's institutional independence and long-term decision-making. Gregory Haile, chair of the Atlanta Fed's board search committee, said candidates must appreciate the value of an autonomous centra…
Oil prices plunged by more than 10% in the largest single-day decline since 2022, fueling gains across Asian and European stock markets even as U.S. shares lagged and finished the session with modest losses. Market attention swung between volatile energy headlines, large intraday swings that threaten leveraged positions, and signs that China’s expo…
Atlanta Federal Reserve board chair Gregory Haile told Reuters the search for a successor to former Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will be national in scope, provided candidates demonstrate a willingness and ability to engage with communities across the Sixth District. Applications remain open, interviews are expected to begin in roughly 30 d…
Brazil’s Finance Ministry must update its 2026 growth and inflation projections amid heightened market volatility tied to the conflict in Iran, sources say. Those forecasts will feed into a bimonthly fiscal report due by March 24 that will compare actual revenues and spending with the approved budget and could trigger a spending freeze to meet fisc…
The Pentagon confirmed that roughly 140 U.S. service members were wounded over a 10-day period of hostilities tied to Iran. Officials said the majority of injuries were minor and that 108 personnel have returned to duty; eight service members remain seriously wounded and are receiving top-level medical attention. U.S. military officials also report…
The White House clarified that the United States has not escorted any oil tankers or other vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, after an Energy Department post on the social platform X claiming otherwise was removed. Officials also said there is no announcement on lifting energy sanctions and reiterated conditions for ending operations related to …
Large European asset managers have moved to counter recent wild swings in bond markets that have altered expectations for rate cuts among the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. Amundi and Allianz Global Investors have increased holdings in short-dated British and Italian government bonds and longer-dated UK gilts respectively, arguing m…
UBS economists say the U.S. economy may be approaching a structural acceleration driven mainly by artificial intelligence investment and gains in the stock market, but they caution that growth is concentrated and vulnerable to several downside pressures including higher energy costs and tariff-related income strains.
BRB, the bank controlled by Brazil's Federal District government, intends to request a 3.3 billion reais loan from the credit guarantee fund (FGC) by month-end to support its capitalization. The move is part of a broader plan to raise 6.6 billion reais to cover losses linked to allegedly fraudulent credit portfolios purchased from Banco Master, whi…
Higher gasoline prices and swings in the stock market tied to the U.S.-Israeli military action involving Iran are raising the prospect that consumer spending across income groups will weaken. The developments risk undercutting early-year expectations that stronger refunds, a healthy labor market and asset gains would boost consumption. If oil and g…
The District of Columbia Office of Disciplinary Counsel has filed ethics charges against Ed Martin, a Justice Department official, alleging he leveraged his government position to pressure Georgetown University Law Center over its teaching of diversity, equity and inclusion. The complaint centers on a February 2025 letter in which Martin, then inte…
Israel’s foreign minister declared that the country is not aiming for a never-ending conflict with Iran and that decisions on when to halt operations will be made in consultation with the United States. Speaking in Jerusalem as the confrontation entered its 11th day, the minister declined to set a timeline. Germany’s foreign minister, also in Jerus…
BofA Securities has rescinded earlier expectations for two 25-basis-point Bank of Canada cuts and now projects the central bank will hold policy steady through 2026. The change follows a sharp rise in oil prices after the launch of the U.S.-Israel "Epic Fury" operation in Iran, which BofA says simultaneously lifts near-term growth prospects for Can…
Foreign investors pared back purchases of emerging-market assets in February to a net $21.7 billion, down sharply from January’s record inflows. Debt continued to draw the bulk of allocations, while equity purchases slowed and regional patterns showed differentiated investor interest across Asia, Latin America, and other markets.
Banking regulators in the Trump administration plan to release draft revisions to Basel banking rules in the coming weeks that industry executives say will likely reduce capital requirements for some U.S. banks. The Federal Reserve, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and FDIC are preparing an industry-friendlier proposal along with a related…
A poll of economists indicates Argentina's Consumer Price Index probably rose 2.7% in February, down from January's 2.9% and marking the first monthly slowdown since June. Despite the softer monthly reading, year-on-year inflation is expected to rise to 32.7%, keeping pressure on policymakers and President Javier Milei's pledge to eliminate inflati…
Deutsche Bank strategists say the Bank of England has experienced the largest shift in rate expectations among major central banks this month as markets respond to fast-moving energy developments in the Middle East. Where the BoE was priced for more than two full rate cuts through the end of 2026 at the end of February, pricing as of Tuesday mornin…
Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan Board reported total net assets of C$279.4 billion for 2025, supported by a 6.7% total-fund net return. The plan recorded C$18.5 billion in investment income and C$4.1 billion in contributions, while paying out C$8.5 billion in benefits and incurring C$1.0 billion in administrative expenses. Performance trailed an 11.…
Bain Capital is approaching the final close of its sixth pan-Asia private equity fund after securing approximately $10.5 billion in commitments, well above its original $7 billion goal. Limited partners have provided about $9 billion, while the firm plans to contribute $1.5 billion of its own capital. Separately, Bain has raised around $2 billion f…
U.S. equity futures rose after remarks from President Donald Trump raised hopes the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran could be drawing to a close sooner than his prior four-to-five-week estimate. Crude and natural gas prices eased from the worrying $120 per barrel threshold, providing relief to battered travel stocks. Yet Iran's declaration that an o…
