Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
4,093 total articles
BCA Research warns that a persistent 10% fall in U.S. equity markets could erode roughly $7 trillion in household wealth and trim consumer spending by about $280 billion, equal to nearly 0.9% of GDP. The firm notes that while headline GDP was weighed down by government-related drag, private demand remains resilient, but mounting artificial intellig…
BCA Research projects that U.S. trade tensions will remain fairly constrained through 2026 due to legal and political checks, but could reopen after the next political cycle in 2027. A recent Supreme Court ruling narrowing the president's emergency-tariff authority, together with midterm election dynamics, makes a large near-term tariff escalation …
In a decisive opinion, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that President Trump exceeded his authority by using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose broad tariffs on nearly all U.S. trading partners. The decision, authored by Chief Justice John Roberts and issued in a 6-3 vote, struck down the tariffs outright and underscored the cour…
A senior European Central Bank policymaker warned that the recent sharper-than-expected decline in euro zone inflation warrants close monitoring, highlighting a surge in Chinese imports and lower import prices as a major disinflationary force. He said staff projections due in March will be important for policy calibration and stressed that risks to…
UBS cautions that recent increases in U.S. productivity are unlikely to be driven by widespread artificial intelligence deployment. The bank highlights low measured AI implementation at scale, minimal capital spending tied to AI, and no major changes in hiring as reasons why AI cannot yet account for the productivity improvement.
Europe's exporters reacted with caution after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down a major portion of the Trump administration's tariff program. Industry groups across Italy, Germany and France say the ruling removes one legal basis for tariffs but leaves open a path for new levies under different statutes, creating fresh uncertainty for orders, supp…
The Supreme Court struck down IEEPA-backed tariffs, removing about half of the current U.S. tariff framework and delivering an immediate benefit to importers and corporate profit margins. However, the ruling does not preclude new levies, and policymakers, markets, and the Treasury face persistent uncertainty over refunds, replacement tariffs, and t…
The White House confirmed that most goods shipped under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement will be exempt from a newly enacted 10% global tariff after a Supreme Court ruling curtailed broader emergency authorities. The exemption reduces the immediate tariff burden for Mexico and Canada and provides relief to key sectors such as autos and energy, but it…
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer announced on Friday that his office will launch multiple investigations under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. The reviews are expected to span most of the United States' major trading partners and to examine issues including pharmaceutical product pricing, industrial excess capacity, forced labor, and …
The U.S. Supreme Court’s current term encompasses a wide array of consequential disputes that touch on presidential authority, administrative independence, civil rights, criminal justice, commercial liability and regulatory reach. The docket includes fast-moving emergency matters and long-running appeals that could reshape how federal statutes and …
The U.S. Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that the president lacks unilateral authority to set sweeping tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, calling into question trade leverage, deals negotiated under tariff threats and roughly $175 billion collected from importers. President Trump reacted angrily, criticized members of the court,…
The U.S. Supreme Court's decision to invalidate tariffs imposed under a statute reserved for national emergencies has, according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, reduced President Donald Trump's bargaining leverage while simultaneously preserving the more extreme option of a full embargo. Bessent discussed the ruling and its implications on Fox…
The U.S. Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that the president lacked authority under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose a wide-ranging set of reciprocal tariffs. The decision leaves unanswered whether previously collected duties must be refunded, while the administration says it will pursue other statutory routes and impos…
Brazil's Vice-President and development, industry and trade minister Geraldo Alckmin said a U.S. Supreme Court ruling that invalidated expansive tariffs imposed by former President Donald Trump removed levies that had singled out Brazil, restoring the country's competitiveness in the U.S. market. Alckmin, speaking at a press conference in Brasilia,…
St. Louis Federal Reserve President Alberto Musalem told a television audience that the central bank's current policy posture is appropriate for the economy. He said that replacing tariffs on a one-for-one basis would have little economic effect, noted that high productivity growth has not yet shown up in macro data, praised the Kevin Warsh nominat…
The U.S. Supreme Court struck down a set of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, cutting the trade-weighted U.S. tariff average and wiping out a legal foundation for more than $175 billion in levies. Analysts say the decision does not remove the broader risk to global trade because the administration has signaled i…
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told the Economic Club of Dallas he expects the current low-hire, low-fire phase in the labor market to give way to stronger demand. He pointed to last year's surge in business investment in AI data centers and rising profits and demand at temp agencies as early signals. Bessent also commented on a recent Supre…
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Trump administration will rely on alternative statutory authorities to maintain tariff policy after the Supreme Court ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not permit the president to impose tariffs. Speaking at the Economic Club of Dallas, Bessent argued the administration…
President Donald Trump restated his preference for substantially lower interest rates and sharply criticized Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell during a briefing, saying Powell prefers high rates for political reasons. Trump reiterated that he plans to replace Powell with his nominee, Kevin Warsh, whose nomination he announced last month. The pres…
President Donald Trump announced on Friday a plan to impose a 10% global tariff for 150 days, to be enacted under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. The duties would be layered on top of current tariffs and follow a Supreme Court decision that found the prior broad global tariffs illegal under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. The…
President Donald Trump announced a temporary 10% global tariff to be applied for 150 days under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, aiming to replace emergency duties the U.S. Supreme Court found unlawful. The levy will be added on top of existing tariffs, and the administration said it is launching Section 301 trade investigations at the same ti…
President Donald Trump said he will pursue a more forceful tariff strategy after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled against his broad tariff measures. At a briefing, he said he intends to rely on other federal authorities - citing the Trade Expansion Act and the 1974 Trade Act - to impose trade restrictions and predicted that tariff receipts would rise u…
President Donald Trump reacted strongly after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that his use of emergency powers to impose tariffs was unconstitutional. Speaking at the White House, he called the decision "deeply disappointing," said he was "absolutely ashamed" of the justices who opposed him, and warned foreign governments that they would not "be d…
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan said monetary policy is well positioned to handle economic risks but remains wary about the path back to the Fed’s 2% inflation target. Speaking at Columbia University, she cited tariff uncertainty, upside inflation risks, and questions around the technology sector and demand-supply dynamics. Log…
An Illinois family-owned educational toy company that imports most of its products from China was among the first small businesses to sue over tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. The U.S. Supreme Court struck down those tariffs, opening the possibility that importers could receive billions in refunds, though the c…
